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- When the Lithium Cycle Turns, You Don’t Chase, You Stage Your Buys
When the Lithium Cycle Turns, You Don’t Chase, You Stage Your Buys
This isn’t a science project; it’s a cyclical with secular tailwinds. Prices are stabilizing, contracts are resetting, and management is tightening the operating screws.
The edge is patient accumulation, tracking spreads and free cash flow for your portfolio.

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Kenvue | KVUE

Price: $16.64
KVUE is a classic consumer-health compounder working through brand noise and execution cleanup.
The portfolio is still elite, gross margins remain stout, and the yield is compelling near 5%.
The drag has been organic declines across segments and a Tylenol narrative that sucked oxygen from the room even as regulators stayed cautious on causality.
New leadership and a board exploring options suggest a willingness to simplify and refocus, with Skin Health & Beauty the swing factor if operations tighten.
Treat this like a self-help income name. Build a position near the 52-week low zone and demand proof of life in sequential sales, inventory turns, and SG&A efficiency.
Watch US share and pricing power in Self Care, early signs of operational lift in Skin Health, and any update on strategic alternatives that could unlock value.
The balance sheet can support the dividend while fixes take hold, but patience is required. Trim rips into headlines, add back on quiet consolidation.
Why it matters to you: you get paid to wait while a blue-chip shelf of brands is streamlined, with upside if execution and portfolio moves land.

Delta Air Lines | DAL

Price: $57.49
DAL just reminded the street that premium pays the bills.
Q3 topped expectations with premium revenue growth offsetting main cabin softness, and guidance frames steady earnings power into year-end.
Balance sheet cleanup continues and valuation sits in single-digit earnings, which does not price in much travel normalization or persistence of premium mix.
Risks remain with fuel, labor, and capacity chess across the majors, but network discipline and product differentiation are showing up in unit revenue.
Own it like a core cyclical at a sensible price. Add on red days when oil pops or macro jitters hit airlines.
Track premium share, corporate recovery pacing, domestic unit revenue versus capacity, and non-fuel cost control.
Keep an eye on cash generation against debt paydown and capital returns, and be ready to trim quick spikes into crowded travel headlines.
If margins inch up while premium demand stays sturdy, the multiple does not need heroics to work.
Why it matters to you: durable cash generation with a valuation cushion, and upside if the premium cabin remains the traveler’s habit, not a fad.

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Costco | COST

Price: $930.23
COST continues to execute the most dependable retail model on the board.
Traffic plus ticket, membership renewal strength, and tight expense control drove another clean quarter.
The street remains broadly positive, even as a handful of targets nudged lower to reflect a high bar. The only real debate is price.
A mid-50s P/E demands ongoing comp and membership momentum, potential special-dividend optionality, and continued mix benefits from private label and fresh.
Treat COST as a buy-the-boring winner. Add on market pullbacks or guidance-day wobble, not after blue-sky prints.
Watch renewal rates, paid household growth, fuel and food deflation impact on comps, and any signals on international club expansion.
Margin moves are incremental but powerful given scale, and ancillary streams like credit and services keep the flywheel smooth.
If comps hold high single digits and membership economics remain pristine, premium can persist.
Why it matters to you: a fortress consumer engine with cash flow consistency that compounds quietly, even when the tape wobbles.

Dell Technologies | DELL

Price: $150.50
DELL has recast itself as an AI infrastructure on-ramp.
Management lifted long-term growth math, pointing to an expanding AI server backlog and a plan to double AI server shipments next fiscal year.
The pitch is simple. Wrap best-of-breed silicon with compute, storage, networking, deployment, and services, then convert demand into cash returns.
Valuation sits near the low 20s P/E with a modest yield, which is reasonable if orders keep stepping up and margins hold.
This is a core position for the AI capex cycle. Buy dips tied to component headlines or macro risk-off.
Track AI server mix and backlog quality, storage attach, networking pull-through, and free cash flow versus buybacks and dividends.
Margin pressure is a risk in competitive servers, so look for signs that Dell’s IP and services protect gross profit as volumes scale.
Consider trimming parabolic spikes, then re-add on base building.
Why it matters to you: exposure to AI spend without picking a model winner, plus capital return and services that smooth the ride.

Albemarle | ALB

Price: $89.86
ALB has snapped off the lows as lithium spot firmed and sentiment improved.
Recent sell-side moves skew constructive with TD Cowen raising its target while staying neutral, Oppenheimer lifting targets with an Outperform, and another major bank still on Buy.
The near-term tape is noisy.
Mix is shifting away from legacy long-term contracts, Q3 EBITDA is modeled lighter than consensus, and free cash flow has leaned on a customer prepayment.
Counterweights include a 31-year dividend growth streak, a fresh COO to sharpen execution, and supply headlines that trimmed global tonnage at the margin.
The play is to ladder entries, not sprint. Add on red days into the mid-90s, then require evidence that EBITDA margins stabilize as spot and spodumene hold recent gains.
Separate reported FCF from prepayment optics, watch capex cadence and JV performance, and track realized pricing versus spot to gauge mix reset progress.
If management protects balance sheet flexibility and the cost curve behaves, this sets up as a multiquarter repair that can turn into a rerate if lithium’s next up-leg sticks.
Why it matters to you: a way to own electrification at a discount to peers, with income while you wait for margins and pricing to re-sync.

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Today’s mix blends cyclical torque with steady compounders.
ALB is your leveraged play on a tightening lithium market, KVUE offers paid patience while a consumer-health giant retools, DAL brings premium travel leverage at a value multiple, COST is best-in-class retail consistency, and DELL is the integration layer for AI hardware at scale.
Build on weakness, let fundamentals green-light each add, and resize when the tape stretches.
Stat of the Day 50%+
Gold is up more than 50% year-to-date through October 7, its best run since 1979, with Bitcoin up 34%.
We have never seen those two as the one-two finishers in any calendar year, a reminder to keep a balanced playbook and respect cross-asset flows when they start dictating tape action.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha


