When a Dividend King Gets Knocked Down, Do You Step In?

Steel stocks aren’t known for drama, but this one just dropped after warning about weaker profits ahead. The pullback has us asking if it’s a crack in the armor, or a chance to grab a proven dividend powerhouse on sale.

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FedEx | FDX

Price: $231.84

Nice beat. FedEx topped on revenue and EPS for fiscal Q1, sending shares higher after hours.

Management called out 6% growth in average daily U.S. volumes and better operating results at Ground and Express, even as Freight lagged.

Guidance landed with some swagger: revenue growth of 4%–6% in fiscal 2026 and EPS of $17.20–$19.

That’s the kind of “blocking and tackling” execution you want to see when global trade is messy.

There are moving parts. The spin of FedEx Freight is still on track for completion by June 2026.

The end of the “de minimis” import exception created cost and pricing friction, especially on China-linked small parcels, and FedEx nudged fees higher to offset.

Macro remains a headwind, but the network is more resilient and the cost discipline is real.

Why it matters to you: With rates drifting lower after the Fed cut, e-commerce and small-biz shipping can reaccelerate.

If volumes keep improving into holiday season while yields hold up, FDX has room to rebuild the multiple from a depressed base.

Synopsys | SNPS

Price: $495.51

The Ansys deal finally closed, and then the first combined print underwhelmed.

Revenue and EPS missed, and full-year guidance stepped down as merger costs, a softer IP segment, China restrictions, and a fumbled foundry partner weighed on results.

The stock paid for it with a sharp drawdown.

Step back. Strategically, this is still a powerhouse. Marrying EDA (chip design) with multiphysics simulation puts Synopsys closer to a “silicon-to-systems” platform.

Management is targeting ~$400M run-rate cost synergies within three years and >$1B revenue synergies by decade’s end.

AI complexity, chiplet architectures, 3D stacking, and thermal constraints all argue for tighter design-simulation loops that SNPS can monetize.

Watch the near term. Integration costs squeeze margins in 2025, divestitures need regulatory sign-off, and China remains a wildcard.

Debt from the deal ups the execution bar.

Why it matters to you: Great stories can still stumble in year one of a mega-merger.

If you believe in the long runway for AI hardware and digital twins, volatility can be your entry point. Look for cleaner integration updates into 2026.

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Applied Materials | AMAT

Price: $190.01

Quietly doing the thing. AMAT flagged powerful momentum in DRAM tools this year, with leading-edge DRAM revenue tracking ~50% higher and the etch business setting a quarterly record above $1B.

Customers are adopting AMAT’s new CVD and dielectric patterning systems to meet AI-class performance and power targets.

High-bandwidth memory is the spark, already ~15% of DRAM capacity and growing 30%–40% annually.

Next chapter: 4F² vertical transistor DRAM architectures around 2027–2028. AMAT sees that inflection as a multi-year wallet-share win.

Against peers, the setup is balanced: Lam is scoring etch wins, ASML’s EUV stays booked, but AMAT remains the broadest exposure to front-end and specialty steps with a valuation that’s still below many AI “picks and shovels.”

Why it matters to you: If the Nvidia-Intel news pushes more compute back to x86 in data centers and PCs, memory bandwidth needs don’t get smaller, they grow.

AMAT is levered to that capex cycle without having to pick the CPU/GPU winner.

Moody’s | MCO

Price: $481.14

Credit markets never sleep, and Moody’s keeps cashing the tickets. RBC reiterated a Buy with a $550 target, citing steady execution.

Last quarter’s revenue hit ~$1.9B with net income of ~$578M, and issuance trends have held up even through macro noise.

The analytics business adds a durable subscription layer on top of the ratings engine, which helps smooth the cycle.

Caveats: insider selling has ticked up, and at ~41x earnings the stock isn’t cheap.

Rates are moving down, which can be a mixed bag, as refi waves help issuance, but spreads and risk appetite matter just as much.

Why it matters to you: MCO is a classic “toll road” on capital formation. If the Fed keeps easing and deal flow improves into year-end, ratings volumes should stay healthy.

For longer-term holders, the structural moat is still wide.

Nucor | NUE

Price: $133.25

Dividend King with a speed bump. NUE is up ~17% YTD, but the latest Q3 preview landed below the Street, with EPS now seen around $2.05–$2.15 versus higher expectations.

Management pointed to pressure across mills, products, and raw materials. The stock wobbled, which is fair.

Near-term steel spreads are tight, and industrial demand has pockets of softness.

Don’t lose the forest. Nucor’s EAF footprint is efficient, flexible, and lower-carbon, and its integrated scrap business (DJJ) helps control input costs.

It returns capital through buybacks and a 52-year dividend growth streak. As onshoring, data centers, energy and infrastructure projects keep building, volumes have a cushion.

Why it matters to you: Cyclicals do what cyclicals do. If you own it for the compounding dividend and best-in-class balance sheet, earnings air pockets are part of the ride.

Rate cuts can support non-residential demand into 2026, and NUE tends to gain share when the cycle turns.

Today’s tape was a reminder that partnerships can move mountains. If GPUs and x86 get cozier, it could rewire parts of the compute stack and keep the AI capex flywheel spinning.

In that world, parcel networks benefit from extra throughput, chip-tool vendors stay busy, ratings desks hum, and steel still gets poured.

Different gears, same engine: execution.

Stat of the Day: $5 billion
That’s how much Nvidia is investing in Intel stock as the two team up on CPU-GPU offerings.

It’s a political and technical swing that could reshape data center menus and pull more AI compute to the edge. Keep an eye on who sells the picks and shovels into that build-out.