Tiny Cores, Huge Ambition, and a Pricing Puzzle For You

A heavyweight of mobile silicon is pushing deeper into data centers with new partnerships, talent hires, and analyst love.

The upside is a bigger royalty pie in AI. The wrinkle is a sky-high multiple that leaves no room for stumbles.

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Opendoor Technologies | OPEN

Price: $10.47

That escalated quickly.

A new CEO, Kaz Nejatian (ex-Shopify COO), and the return of co-founder Keith Rabois as chair lit the fuse, sending shares popping in after-hours and extending an already wild comeback from sub-$1 levels this summer. 

The bull version of new leadership + product discipline + tighter unit economics could finally make the iBuyer model hum when spreads are favorable.

The bear version of housing is cyclical, capital is not free, and inventory turns can bite if mortgage liquidity tightens again.

Operationally, the near-term scorecard is simple. Acquisition spreads, resale velocity, and financing capacity.

If Nejatian applies a Shopify-style “ship, measure, iterate” cadence to pricing and remarketing, OPEN can lean into volatility instead of getting steamrolled by it.

But after a meme-fueled sprint and board drama, expectations are… lively.

Why it matters to you: This is a pure bet on execution in a choppy housing tape. If the new team proves they can consistently buy right and sell fast, the model scales.

If spreads compress, the party ends early.

Boeing | BA

Price: $220.04

Some welcome de-risking. The machinists’ union says it has a tentative deal with Boeing’s defense unit after a month-plus strike.

Members vote Friday. That doesn’t magically fix supply chains or certification timelines, but it reduces the odds of prolonged disruption for F-15 and missile programs. 

For a stock that’s rallied >30% YTD on “getting back to normal,” normal needs fewer headlines and more deliveries.

Investors are triaging two stories: (1) commercial recovery (cadence, quality, cash); (2) defense stability (labor peace, program execution).

A five-year pact would check a box on the latter just as management tries to keep the commercial side on its delivery glide path.

Keep an eye on free cash flow guideposts and any color on defense margins post-deal.

Why it matters to you: BA’s rerating depends on consistent execution, not drama. A ratified contract clears one speed bump on the road back to credibility.

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The Trade Desk | TTD

Price: $45.22

Down ~61% YTD, but still getting defended.

Stifel reiterated Buy/$90 after its tech summit, and clarified that U.S. exclusivity with Walmart’s retail media remains intact (the change was in Mexico).

That matters, because retail media is still the fastest-growing slice of digital ads, and having the inside lane with a top retailer anchors TTD’s open-internet pitch.

The setup is macro is wobbly, brand budgets are picky, and walled gardens keep getting taller.

TTD’s answer is signal fidelity (UID2), transparent pricing, and omnichannel reach (CTV, audio, retail). 

If ad dollars rotate back toward performance spend into holiday, the model’s operating leverage can show up quickly, even from a bruised base.

But with sentiment fragile, investors will want clean beats on spend growth and take-rate, not just reassurances.

Why it matters to you: If you fancy retail media and CTV happens to re-accelerate on the open web, TTD can work from here.

If budgets stay cautious and CTV pricing is squishy, patience gets tested.

Phillips 66 | PSX

Price: $132.53

A refiner with optionality. Shares around $131 yield ~3.6%, with activist pressure (Elliott) pushing on governance and execution, and UBS sticking with a Buy/$144 target.

Near-term, refining margins and utilization do most of the talking, and recent turnaround activity plus West Coast noise haven’t helped optics. 

The counterweight includes portfolio moves (the EPIC Y-Grade NGL acquisition), ongoing buybacks, and a cleaner story if management streamlines ops.

This is a classic “blocking and tackling” tape. Crack spreads, downtime, product mix, and cost control.

If PSX converts more of the cycle into cash returns while simplifying the footprint, it can outrun the usual mid-cycle fade.

Watch for updated capital allocation guardrails and any hints that midstream integration is lifting base earnings.

Why it matters to you: In energy, consistency gets the multiple. If PSX shows steadier margins and leans into returns, the stock has room even without perfect macro.

Arm Holdings | ARM

Price: $154.68

Momentum check. Fresh coverage with a Buy, a marquee “Catalysts of Innovation” co-host slot, and a notable AI chip hire out of Amazon.

Add in ecosystem deals (think access programs that onboard partners faster), and you’ve got a licensing engine aiming squarely at servers and edge AI, well beyond phones. 

That’s the story bulls want. More devices on newer instruction sets, higher royalty rates, and a longer tail as customers refresh designs on v9 and beyond.

Now the catch. Shares around $154 are up ~20% YTD, but the valuation is lofty, even for AI.

Leadership churn (one senior exec departed for Intel) is a reminder that execution, not headlines, will decide if data center ambitions translate into real dollars.

What you should watch next is evidence of CPU wins in cloud instances, uplift in per-chip royalties as newer cores scale, and any signs that automotive/IoT design starts are inflecting.

Why it matters to you: If this roadmap turns into sustained royalty growth in servers, not just handsets, the multiple can stay elevated. If not, gravity works fast in semis.

Today’s theme: narrative control. One chip licensor is trying to turn ecosystem buzz into royalty muscle.

An iBuyer swapped leaders to reset a high-beta model. A refiner is polishing the cash-return story under activist eyes.

A bankable ad platform is defending moats after a painful reset. And a planemaker is (hopefully) trading headlines for handoffs.

In this market, whoever proves it fastest wins the rerate.

Stat of the Day – −910,000
That’s the preliminary downward revision to U.S. job gains for the year through March.

The labor backdrop was weaker than first reported, another reason cut talk is loud, and why “show me” remains the market’s default setting.