This Sportsbook Just Entered a Whole New Game

This company already prints revenue off America’s favorite habit: watching sports and swearing the ref is personally targeting them.

Now it’s pushing into prediction markets in a big way, and the market’s trying to decide if this is a smart expansion… or an expensive distraction.

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Duolingo | DUOL

Price: $181.54

Duolingo has had a brutal year on the screen, but the business isn’t acting broken.

The stock got punished after softer forward guidance, and the market latched onto the fear that AI chatbots make language learning free and therefore less sticky.

Under the hood, user engagement is still trending the right way.

Daily active users have been growing faster than monthly users, and subscription revenue has been strong, which is basically the only vote that matters in consumer apps: people keep paying.

Management is leaning into the growth of the user base even if it means less near-term bookings momentum, and the multiple looks a lot less spicy after the selloff.

Why it matters for you: DUOL is a sentiment stock right now. If retention and paid conversion hold up, the market can re-rate it quickly.

If growth slows and AI alternatives feel good enough, the rebound gets harder.

e.l.f. Beauty | ELF

Price: $80.42

e.l.f. is in the part of the consumer market where trends shift fast and loyalty is rented, not owned.

Recent channel data suggests market-share gains have slowed in some categories as competition ramps up, with bigger brands pushing harder and narrowing the gap.

The bull case is still simple: e.l.f. wins by staying fast, cheap, and culturally relevant.

The bear case is also simple: when everyone else increases innovation and promo intensity at the same time, the easy share-grab phase ends.

The next few quarters are about whether product launches stay strong enough to defend its shelf space and mindshare.

Why it matters for you: ELF trades like a growth brand, so it needs to keep acting like one. If share stabilizes and innovation hits, the stock can recover.

If it starts losing “must-have” energy, multiples can compress.

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HubSpot | HUBS

Price: $398.14

HubSpot is the kind of software name that gets punished twice: once when growth slows, and again when investors decide they want proof of ROI immediately.

After a big multiple compression this year, some analysts are starting to argue the AI fear is already baked in, and that steady growth plus margin progress could set up a recovery path.

The opportunity is still there.

HubSpot has a strong position with SMB and mid-market customers, and the next leg is upmarket traction and more AI-driven value that helps customers grow revenue, not just manage workflows.

The stock’s been volatile, but that’s what happens when the market tries to price a high-quality platform during a mood swing.

Why it matters for you: HUBS doesn’t need a miracle, it needs consistency.

If it can keep growing around the 20% range and expand margins, the stock can grind back toward a better valuation.

Celsius | CELH

Price: $45.59

Celsius has been a high-beta rollercoaster even in a strong year.

The company is still posting eye-popping growth, but the stock has reacted hard to anything that smells like short-term noise, especially around distribution changes and integration complexity.

The bigger strategic story is portfolio scale and execution.

With deeper ties to Pepsi’s distribution machine and the added weight of a broader energy lineup, Celsius is trying to turn brand momentum into a category-level footprint. 

That’s a powerful setup when it works, but transitions can create messy quarters where the fundamentals are fine and the stock still throws a tantrum.

Why it matters for you: CELH is a watch the execution stock. If distribution integration stays on track and share holds, dips can become opportunities.

If the handoff gets choppy, volatility stays part of the deal.

DraftKings | DKNG

Price: $34.88

DraftKings is getting a new headline catalyst, but it comes with a price tag.

The company just launched its prediction app across 38 states, which keeps it ahead of the curve if prediction-style markets become a mainstream category.

The catch is that Wall Street is already modeling the near-term costs, and at least one major shop trimmed its price target on launch expenses while keeping a Buy view.

This is the classic growth trade-off: spend now to build distribution, education, and habit formation, or stay conservative and let a rival define the category.

With FanDuel expected to push into a similar lane, the competitive pressure is real, and so is the regulatory noise risk.

The stock hasn’t exploded on the news because investors are waiting for proof that this app actually drives incremental customers, not just incremental marketing spend.

Why it matters for you: DKNG doesn’t need this to work to survive, but if the prediction product sticks, it could widen the moat and lift the long-term growth story.

If costs balloon without traction, the stock can stay in the penalty box.

📊 Stat of the Day: 4.3%

Third-quarter GDP came in at a 4.3% annual rate, the strongest growth pace in two years, with consumers doing most of the heavy lifting.

In plain English: people kept spending even while the macro mood stayed gloomy, which helps explain why anything tied to everyday habits, entertainment, subscriptions, and small treat yourself purchases keeps finding demand.