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- This Server Squeeze Is a Smarter Entry for Cashing In on the Hardware Dip
This Server Squeeze Is a Smarter Entry for Cashing In on the Hardware Dip
A downgrade on rising memory costs knocked a data-center heavyweight off its stride.
The move is to open a starter on weakness, then only add if the next print shows ARR still climbing, AI racks still moving, and margins stabilizing as costs pass through.
If backlog slips or gross margin compresses again, skip the add and wait for a base.

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Arm | ARM

Price: $136.04
Arm just made it easier to pair custom Neoverse CPUs with the AI world’s favorite accelerators via Nvidia’s NVLink Fusion.
That means hyperscalers get more freedom to mix-and-match Arm-based chips with Nvidia GPUs without awkward glue code or vendor lock-in.
That keeps Arm squarely in the conversation as clouds roll their own silicon to trim costs and power hungry AI jobs.
Yes, the multiple is rich, but this is about licensing into a bigger pie, not fab risk. Every new bring-your-own-CPU rack that speaks NVLink widens Arm’s toll road.
Why this matters for you: If you want AI infrastructure exposure beyond one chipmaker, Arm’s model benefits as more custom CPUs plug into GPU clusters.
It’s a diversification play on the buildout, not a single-product bet.

Expedia | EXPE

Price: $240.02
Google rolled out a more aggressive AI trip-planning and booking flow, and travel platforms felt it.
Expedia sold off as investors game out another round of search-page real estate musical chairs.
Reality check for you here is that Expedia has been living with platform risk since forever and keeps leaning into direct app usage, loyalty, and partnerships.
The holiday quarter helps, but what matters is who owns the customer on the phone, if EXPE continues to shift traffic to logged-in users and bundles more lodging and air and activities, it can blunt search changes.
Near term, you can expect choppier multiples as the market models Google’s take-rate ambitions.
Why this matters for you: If you own EXPE, your thesis should hinge on direct relationships and repeat rates, not the mercy of one AI box.
Watch app MAUs, loyalty engagement, and take rates because if those hold, dips on algorithm scares are opportunities.

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Ford | F

Price: $13.02
Ford is teaming with Amazon so dealers can sell certified pre-owned cars online, financing, paperwork starts, pickup at the store. It’s Prime, but for used F-150s.
For Ford, CPO is a sweet spot with better margins than base used, warranties that reduce buyer anxiety, and inventory that can move faster with Amazon’s front door traffic.
Don’t overthink it, this is about meeting shoppers where they already are and letting dealers turn metal more efficiently.
If early city pilots (LA, Seattle, Dallas) scale, expect copycats and broader rollouts.
Why this matters for you: CPO volume and speed are underrated levers for cash flow. Faster turns and lower CAC via Amazon traffic can help smooth the EV learning curve and fund the core.
If you’re in F for the dividend and optionality, this adds a practical, near-term catalyst.

Coinbase | COIN

Price: $261.79
Crypto took a cold shower, Bitcoin broke a big round number, ETH slipped, altcoins followed, and Coinbase wore it, because trading volumes pay the bills.
The irony is that fundamentals have actually improved with new products and institutional traction, but sentiment is still king when tokens inhale.
You don’t need a PhD to model this one as when prices drop fast, retail steps back, volumes shrink, and the stock sulks.
The flip side is that COIN is far cleaner, more diversified, and more regulated than in the last crypto winter, so recoveries can reflate throughput quickly.
Why this matters for you: If you use COIN as a proxy for crypto activity, size it like a cyclical.
Add when fear spikes, trim into euphoria, and keep an eye on net take rate and institutional flows to gauge durability beyond the day’s candlestick.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise | HPE

Price: $20.91
A broad hardware downgrade smacked data-center names, with analysts flagging a memory supercycle that could squeeze gross margins as DRAM/NAND prices jump.
HPE got knocked to the mat on fears it can’t pass through costs quickly enough. That’s the headline.
The subtext is that HPE’s value prop isn’t just boxes, it’s GreenLake subscriptions, networking, and services that have better pricing leverage than commodity RAM.
If fulfillment rates wobble over the next couple quarters, the print could look messy, especially if orders, ARR, and AI server momentum stay firm, the market will refocus on run-rate earnings power.
Why this matters for you: Pullbacks driven by input costs (not demand cracks) can create entries in steady compounders.
If you track ARR growth, margin mix, and backlog rather than the DRAM tape, HPE can be a patient add on red days.

Trivia: What does the “rule of 72” help you estimate? |

Stat of the Day: 1.3% Growth
The EU bumped its 2025 eurozone growth view to 1.3%, but trimmed 2026 to 1.2% as higher-than-assumed U.S. tariffs bite.
Net that means near-term resilience with a slower glide path later, more reason to prefer firms with pricing power and global mix that’s not tariff-fragile.
Final Take
Cost spikes and AI hype whipsaw hardware; platform shifts rattle travel; tokens tug COIN like a tide.
None of that changes the playbook: favor businesses with sticky customers, multiple monetization levers, and room to pass through costs.
Use volatility to upgrade your average cost.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha


