This Coffee Comeback Just Got Real Foot Traffic

A new read on early-quarter trends has traders sniffing a turnaround. The key signal is more people are walking in, not just talking.

This brand has spent the past year trying to turn iconic back into reliable. Now we’re finally getting the kind of evidence investors actually pay for: improving traffic and a better-than-feared start to the quarter in North America. If the momentum holds, the market may start pricing this as a recovery story again.

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Home Depot | HD

Price: $346.39

Home Depot is acting like the housing market’s mood ring, and right now it’s not exactly glowing.

U.S. same-store sales barely budged, and the company trimmed its profit outlook as homeowners pulled back on big remodels and expensive upgrades.

When mortgage rates sit stubbornly high, fewer people move, and fewer people tear out kitchens just for fun.

Another wrinkle is weather. Fewer major storms meant less “emergency shopping” for roofing, generators, and repair supplies.

Add in tariff pressure on imported goods and you get a business that can still execute, but has to grind for every win.

Why it matters for you: HD is a clean window into consumer confidence and housing activity.

If Home Depot can’t get demand moving, it usually means the broader home improvement cycle is still stuck.

If housing finally thaws, HD tends to benefit early, and the stock can re-rate fast.

Axon Enterprise | AXON

Price: $600.66

Axon is back in the market likes the story mode.

Shares pushed higher as optimism leaned on a strong analyst consensus, even with Morgan Stanley trimming its price target while keeping an Overweight rating.

In other words, Wall Street is still bullish, just a bit more careful on the math.

The bigger picture is still the same. Axon sells the modern toolbox for public safety, from body cams to software to AI-driven tools that cities sign up for on long contracts.

That kind of recurring, sticky revenue is exactly what investors want in a choppy tape.

The only downside is the stock’s habit of swinging hard, because sentiment can change quickly when expectations get lofty.

Why it matters for you: AXON is a mission-critical tech compounder when contract momentum is strong.

If adoption continues across departments and cities, the runway stays long. Just remember the volatility is part of the package, not a surprise.

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AppLovin | APP

Price: $733.60

AppLovin is still wearing the crown in the mobile ad trade, with institutions continuing to show up.

A new position from Zevenbergen adds to the sense that big money wants exposure to the company’s profit engine, not just the hype.

Analysts have been lifting targets, and the bull narrative leans heavily on accelerating profitability and operating leverage.

But there’s always a second paragraph with APP.

The valuation is rich, insider selling headlines keep popping up, and older short-seller or legal noise still hangs around as a tail risk.

None of that automatically breaks the story, but it can create sudden air pockets when sentiment shifts.

Why it matters for you: If the fundamentals keep printing clean, APP can keep working even at a premium multiple.

The trade-off is that the stock is priced like a winner already, so it needs to keep proving it quarter after quarter.

Paychex | PAYX

Price: $114.89

Paychex delivered FY2026 EPS guidance that came in slightly above consensus, which is the polite version of not bad.

The problem is the market is still focused on the recent quarter miss and the lack of a clear revenue outlook, which keeps the stock in the penalty box.

This is one of those businesses that rarely looks exciting, but can be incredibly steady when conditions cooperate.

It runs on payroll processing, HR tools, and the rhythm of small and mid-sized employers.

The dividend remains a big part of the appeal, but the payout ratio is high, so investors want to see earnings stay dependable.

Why it matters for you: PAYX is basically a read on hiring stability and small-business health.

If the economy stays steady, the stock can act like a slow compounding dividend machine. If job growth wobbles, multiples tend to compress and patience gets tested.

Starbucks | SBUX

Price: $86.17

This is the one investors are starting to believe again.

Shares rallied as traders circulated research suggesting North America is having a better-than-expected start to the quarter, with comparable sales tracking ahead of expectations.

Placer.ai data showing improving foot traffic adds a real-world breadcrumb investors love, because it is harder to fake than a slide deck.

The stock is also benefiting from a simple narrative reset. Instead of endless debate about brand fatigue, the market is focusing on execution: better traffic trends, stronger comps, and signs that the turnaround plan is starting to bite.

It is not a victory lap yet, but it is progress, and the bar was low enough that progress matters.

Why it matters for you: Turnarounds are all about direction.

If traffic keeps improving, the story shifts from broken to recovering, and that can unlock a better valuation even before everything looks perfect.

If the trend stalls, the stock can slip back into skepticism fast.

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Stat of the Day: $100M → $13B+

Monthly betting volume on prediction market leaders Kalshi and Polymarket reportedly exploded from under $100 million in early 2024 to more than $13 billion this November.

That kind of growth usually means the behavior is going mainstream. Early adopters like Robinhood benefit because once the crowd arrives, the platform becomes the toll booth.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha