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This Big Box Just Got A Big Visitor And A Buying Opportunity

An activist stake, a looming CEO handoff, and a turnaround play in a consumer slowdown. It’s retail drama season.

Sometimes it takes an outsider to shake up the shelves. A major investor just took a bite out of one of America’s biggest retailers, and that’s enough to jolt the stock back to life.

With a new CEO incoming, sluggish sales, and consumers growing thriftier, this could be the moment the company gets its second wind, or a new direction entirely.

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Freeport-McMoRan | FCX

Price: $51.48

Copper is on a tear, and so is Freeport-McMoRan. With prices hitting multi-decade highs, investors are treating the stock like a direct ticket to the AI and electrification trade.

The red metal is suddenly the quiet hero of the energy transition, needed for everything from EVs to grid upgrades, and FCX is one of the cleanest plays on that theme.

Even after a rough patch at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia earlier this year, Freeport’s cash generation and disciplined balance sheet have kept it in solid shape.

Its latest dividend boost is proof the company isn’t just talking about shareholder returns, it’s paying them.

The real wildcard is how quickly Grasberg can ramp back to full production, but copper’s strength gives FCX plenty of runway in the meantime.

Why it matters for you: If copper stays strong into 2026, FCX could keep surprising to the upside.

But keep in mind that miner stocks are leveraged to both the commodity price and execution—two variables that can swing fast.

Deckers Outdoor | DECK

Price: $103.71

Deckers keeps proving that people will pay up for comfort if it looks good. Its flagship HOKA running brand posted double-digit growth again last quarter, carrying the company through a tough consumer stretch.

Wholesale demand is hot, sell-through rates are strong, and HOKA’s expanding international footprint is turning into a real global story.

The stock has pulled back sharply this year, but that’s more about valuation than weakness.

Deckers is still growing faster than most footwear peers, thanks to a product line that sits right at the intersection of performance and lifestyle.

If the broader retail slowdown hits, that premium tag may stay under pressure, but long-term, HOKA’s cult following keeps the story alive.

Why it matters for you: DECK offers one of the few growth stories in consumer discretionary that isn’t built on discounting.

If demand holds, patient investors could be rewarded when sentiment swings back.

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Take-Two Interactive | TTWO

Price: $255.70

Take-Two’s quarter came with a loss, but the market barely blinked. Why? Because everyone’s already looking at next year’s marquee event: Grand Theft Auto VI.

The game’s eventual release has turned into one of the most anticipated launches in history, and investors are treating 2025-2026 like the setup phase before the jackpot year.

The company’s current slate—NBA 2K26, GTA Online, and mobile titles—continues to generate billions in bookings, even as costs surge from massive development budgets.

Institutional buyers are holding steady, betting that today’s spending will convert into monster earnings once the pipeline goes live.

Why it matters for you: TTWO trades on future hype as much as fundamentals. If execution stays smooth and GTA VI delivers, the stock could stay in orbit.

But if delays or cost overruns hit, those high expectations can turn fast.

Robinhood | HOOD

Price: $117.43

Robinhood’s 2025 comeback has been nothing short of wild. The stock has more than doubled this year, powered by retail activity, crypto volatility, and its bold new push into prediction markets.

The company is now expanding into NFL prop bets and parlays, blurring the line between finance and fun.

That might sound gimmicky, but the math works: prediction trading has already become a $300 million revenue stream this year, with more growth expected as sports seasons roll on.

With new features and broader appeal, Robinhood is aiming to smooth out its historically choppy earnings and keep users engaged even when markets quiet down.

Why it matters for you: HOOD is finally diversifying beyond trading fees, and that’s what long-term investors wanted to see.

The next test is consistency, whether those flashy new features can keep generating steady cash instead of one-hit spikes.

Target | TGT

Price: $98.10

An activist investor stake has reignited the Target story right before year-end, sending the stock higher in thin holiday trading.

Toms Capital reportedly took a meaningful position in the retailer, stirring speculation about what kind of changes might be coming, new leadership, capital moves, or a sharper retail strategy.

The company has been slogging through three straight quarters of falling comparable sales, pressured by cautious shoppers and heavy promotions that squeeze margins.

Even with record online holiday spending, foot traffic has lagged, and the shift toward value-first buying has made it harder to nudge prices higher.

The good news? Same-day delivery and digital channels are still growing, showing Target hasn’t lost its operational edge.

A leadership transition is coming soon as longtime executive Michael Fiddelke takes over the CEO chair in February.

Add in a $1 billion investment plan for store remodels and fulfillment upgrades, and the setup is there for an activist-fueled reboot in 2026.

Why it matters for you: Target’s turnaround could hinge on fresh leadership and tighter execution.

If the activist play sparks faster moves on costs and digital growth, the stock may finally have a catalyst beyond coupons and holiday sales.

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Stat of the Day: 4.6%

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021.

There are now roughly 160,000 more unemployed Americans than available job openings, a gap we haven’t seen outside of recessions since 2017.

The labor market is cooling, and that could make 2026 a test of who built real pricing power, and who just rode the boom.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha