This Ad Engine Keeps Beating Its Own Benchmarks

This is a math story. An AI ad stack throwing off software-like margins, accelerating self-serve adoption, and fresh repurchases keeps the flywheel spinning.

Valuation risk is real up here, but when guidance, cohorts, and cash all rhyme, the market tends to lean in.

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Newmont | NEM

Price: $94.40

The bellwether has rerated with gold’s bid and better contributions from Brucejack, Cerro Negro, and Yanacocha, even as grades and planned outages created noise elsewhere. 

Street decks keep nudging metal-price assumptions up; the debate now centers on AISC discipline, portfolio optimization, and copper by-product optionality. 

Macro risk (USD, risk-on rotation) can dent sentiment, but reserve depth and balance sheet flexibility help.

Execution into 2026 is about stabilizing volumes, grinding costs down, and translating the metal tape into free cash flow.

Why it matters for you: Watch realized price vs. AISC and ramp cadence at key sites.

If costs drift lower while volumes normalize, FCF leverage improves, and gold sensitivity gives you a hedge if macro gets choppy.

Campbell Soup | CPB

Price: $28.18

A cleaner quarter reminded investors why staples still earn a slot: resilient at-home demand, snacks as the growth engine, and mix tailwinds to gross margin even as promos normalize. 

Beneath the beat, it’s the familiar push-pull, reinvesting in brands and distribution while nursing leverage post-acquisitions.

The multiple is compressed and the dividend sturdy, but the Street wants proof that gross margin gains can outrun freight, labor, and trade spend while debt steps down. 

2026 hinges on price/mix durability, private-label pressure in soup, and whether snacks can carry growth without eroding category profitability.

Why it matters for you: Focus on elasticity, shelf resets, and retailer inventory into winter.

If gross margin keeps grinding up and cash conversion funds the dividend plus deleveraging, a quiet rerate from trough sentiment is plausible.

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JPMorgan | JPM

Price: $310.11

A $105B 2026 expense outlook spooked the stock, as a cost shock plus a somewhat fragile consumer tone raised efficiency questions.

Strategic spend (AI, branches, advisor comp) may be necessary, but big banks trade on operating leverage, and guidance raised the bar. 

The franchise remains the benchmark—capital, liquidity, diversified earnings—but revenue must prove it: stronger fees, steadier markets, and normalized credit costs to defend ROE.

Why it matters for you: Watch NII vs. deposit beta, card loss normalization, investment-banking pipelines, and the efficiency ratio path.

If Q4/Q1 show fee re-acceleration while credit stays benign, this scare fades; if not, the multiple likely waits for cleaner visibility.

Apollo Global | APO

Price: $149.08

Private-markets scale plus an insurance flywheel keeps compounding spread income while infra/energy placements broaden fee durability. 

Bank retrenchment channels credit demand to alternatives, and higher-for-longer supports attractive asset yields, that’s if funding and duration are well matched.

Offsets are fundraising cadence, lumpy realizations, and potential oversight frictions (stress-test frameworks for private credit). 

The through-line is FRE growth and disciplined deployment. Win there, and operating leverage shows through even if exits are slower.

Why it matters for you: Track capital formation across flagships, spread and credit quality in the insurance book, and realization pace.

If liabilities stay prudently termed and deployment remains selective, 2026 earnings power can build without perfect markets.

AppLovin | APP

Price: $703.28

Another higher high built on the same loop: AXON optimizes spend, self-serve widens the funnel, and more of every dollar drops to profit.

Recent prints showed explosive revenue growth with ~80% adjusted EBITDA margins and a larger buyback, which is exactly the combo institutions chase into strength. 

The unlocks from here are deeper prospecting campaigns, broader e-commerce penetration, and continued automation (fewer hands on dials, better ROAS). 

Watch the two headwinds: regulatory noise around data practices and valuation sensitivity if growth decelerates.

If take rates, retention, and cohort quality hold as mix tilts to self-serve, modest beats can still drive outsized moves.

Why it matters for you: Track Q4 margin cadence, self-serve adoption, and any update on the inquiry.

If margin stays north of 80% and top line keeps compounding, momentum tends to persist—even at a premium multiple.

Stat of the Day: 654,000 401(k) millionaires

Fidelity now counts ~654k seven-figure 401(k)s, more than double three years ago. Compounding, steady contributions, and record markets still do the heavy lifting. Staying invested, not timing, did most of the work.

Final Take

APP’s flywheel is still turning; execution just has to keep pace with expectations. Around it, NEM offers macro ballast, CPB a margin-repair story, JPM a prove-it setup on costs vs. revenues, and APO a structural compounding machine, each with clear KPIs to watch before you size up.