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The Undervalued Data-Driven Gem with a Small Cap and Impressive Growth Potential
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Similarweb Ltd.
July 08 – Pre‑market
Ticker: SMWB | Sector: Software – Application / Technology | Market Cap: ~ $738.5M
30‑Second Take
Why now? Similarweb’s revenue is up 14% year-on-year as it continues to capitalize on the growing demand for AI-powered data analytics.
Its customer base has also grown 19% YoY, demonstrating increasing demand for its solutions.
Meanwhile, new product innovations including AI Agents, have expanded Similarweb’s value across multiple business units.
Its tools provide deeper insights for faster action across vital workflows such as SEO, digital strategy, and go-to-market execution.
Perhaps the most compelling argument for those seeking a high-growth stock with long-term potential is that SMWB is currently trading around 44% below its estimated fair value of $15.95.
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Trade Setup
Time frame: Swing to medium-term
Edge type: Momentum breakout
Snapshot Table
Metric | Value | Current Stance |
|---|---|---|
Price | $8.83 | Average |
52‑week range | $5.71 - $17.64 | Average |
Short interest | 0.73% | Below average |
Next catalyst | Q2 earnings expected August |
Chart
5-Day Synopsis: The last five sessions have been overwhelmingly positive for Similarweb.
It has achieved 16.91% gains and retained an upward trajectory despite political and economic uncertainty elsewhere.
It achieved its highest price of the previous five days with a strong opening after the Fourth of July long weekend, peaking at $9.04 in early trading yesterday (Monday).
Bull Case
Core thesis: Similarweb is a leading AI-powered digital data company working with the likes of Samsung, Panasonic, and Ogilvy.
It provides AI expertise across multiple business units, empowering teams across marketing, SEO, PPC, and analytics with extensive insights and actionable expertise.
It has a broad portfolio of products, including Sales Intelligence to support prospecting and pitching, and Shopper Intelligence, which delivers full-funnel Amazon insights.
Catalysts: Despite the implications of President Trump’s tariffs and his ‘One Big Beautiful Bill,’ tech stocks have performed admirably overall in Q2 – and Similarweb is no exception.
It has made significant headway with the launch of Similarweb AI Agents in May and has grown its revenue from multi-year contracts from 42% ARR 12 months ago to 52% ARR today.
A series of tools to help users embrace a digital workforce, AI Agents can spot trends, understand demand spikes, create SEO strategies, perform meeting prep, assist with prospecting and outreach, and more.
This exhaustive grouping of capabilities means Similarweb is more relevant than ever to even more businesses looking to scale their operations without covering the costs of a larger human headcount.
This enhanced ability should translate into additional revenue, a larger addressable target market, and greater client retention by placing Similarweb right at the heart of growing enterprise demand for affordable, effective AI tools.
It’s targeting sales of $69.00 million in Q2 as a result.
Valuation upside: SMWB stock has a high analyst price target of $18.00 and a low of $10.00. The average price target is $13.75.
Technical tailwind: SMWB stock is currently exhibiting multiple strong buy signals. It’s currently trading above the 100-day moving average, with an Average Directional Index (ADX) of 22.77
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Bear Case
Key risk: A significant chunk of Similarweb’s annual recurring revenue is derived from large enterprise clients, which means the pressure to retain them is high.
A loss of just one or two of these larger clients could have a disproportionate impact on revenues.
Macro/sector headwinds: Similarweb’s core customer base is marketing teams and online businesses that are heavily reliant on online data analysis.
If budgets are cut in response to wider economic and geopolitical uncertainty, demand for Similarweb’s analytics tools could falter.
Competitive threat: There is no shortage of competitors in the data analytics and AI space, with names like Google, Amazon, Meta, SEM Rush, and many similar companies all lining up to grab a piece of the AI analytics pie.
Many of these firms have deeper pockets, and therefore, faster development capability, meaning Similarweb will have to work doubly hard to keep pace.
Crowded-trade concern: Similarweb is heavily focused on the development of AI tools, but if this doesn’t translate into a wider customer base and revenue growth, market sentiment could quickly sour.
Quick Checklist
✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (July 07, 2025)
Deep‑Dive Links
That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha