The Turkey Boss Just Tightened Supply, And This Company Could See the Benefit

Thanksgiving is peak protein season and the supply side just got leaner. That sets a friendlier table for packer margins while retail and e-commerce chase record traffic.

Think full carts, full planes, and a decent chance your gravy boat runs out before the headlines do.

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Walmart | WMT

Price: $109.10

New highs into Black Friday is not subtle. Value is working, rollbacks are loud, and the ad engine is turning from side hustle into real profit.

The pitch is simple. Low prices bring traffic, traffic attracts brands, and ads turn eyeballs into higher margin dollars.

Online momentum is strong and a Nasdaq relist in December reinforces the shift from old-school retailer to tech-powered operator.

Holiday baskets look sharper on price this year, which pulls in both budget shoppers and higher-income households hunting for convenience.

Watch the playbook in action this weekend. Faster pickup, faster delivery, and a cleaner app experience can move conversion without heavy promotions.

If replenishment stays smooth and out-of-stocks do not spike, Walmart can walk out of Cyber Week with momentum into December. Ad growth is the cherry on top.

Why it matters for you: Keep an eye on holiday comps, online mix, and ad growth. If all three stay strong, the multiple can stay plump after the feast.

Amazon | AMZN

Price: $229.16

Cyber Week is Amazon’s home game. The story this year is about making shopping easier and monetizing the attention.

Rufus, the AI shopping helper, is rolling out across North America and early reads say assistant users add to cart more often. 

That pairs nicely with the ad business, which loves intent and relevance.

Prime keeps the flywheel spinning with fast delivery and bundled extras that make the checkout decision easier when you are comparing gift ideas from the couch.

Investors will care about two things in the next few days. First, the pace of orders during the five-day shopping window.

Second, the cost to fulfill all those orders without letting shipping expenses eat the dessert.

Amazon has done this dance many times, and the logistics network has only gotten smarter.

Why it matters for you: Track early Cyber Five updates, ad cadence, and delivery speed. If ads and FCF rise in tandem, the stock usually gets seconds.

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Shopify | SHOP

Price: $159.34

This is the merchant multiplier.

Black Friday through Cyber Monday is the moment when Shopify proves its value by turning small and mid-sized brands into big checkout numbers. 

The company trimmed a tiny slice of headcount to stay quick and focused, and AI is now baked into how products get built and how merchants test pages, prices, and promos.

That can lift conversion without leaning too hard on site-wide sales and margin-killing coupons.

The receipts will do the talking. A strong gross merchandise value print with a stable take rate is the combo that keeps bulls engaged.

Add clean partner execution on payments and fulfillment and you get a smoother December. 

The valuation is premium, so follow-through matters.

If merchants sell through holiday inventory without heavy clearance in January, Shopify exits the season with a good story and a better pipeline of new tools to upsell in 2026.

Why it matters for you: If BFCM GMV comes in strong and the take rate holds, the premium can stick even if macro gets lumpy.

Delta Air Lines | DAL

Price: $64.27

Planes are packed and that is the simplest bullish thesis on the board this week.

Load factors and steady fares flow right into revenue, and loyalty keeps people in the ecosystem long after the cranberry sauce is gone.

Fuel costs and operations are the two swing items. 

When both behave, Delta’s margin math looks much better than it did a year ago.

Thanksgiving also pulls forward a clean read on winter bookings and corporate trends, since a lot of people finalize January travel right after the holiday.

The other angle is capacity discipline. If the industry does not flood the market with too many seats in January and February, pricing can hold up even in the slower shoulder.

Add stable on-time performance and fewer cancellations and you get a smoother experience that customers remember when they rebook.

Why it matters for you: Watch loads, PRASM color, and early-January bookings. If those hold, DAL stays a “pay me now” travel play.

Tyson Foods | TSN

Price: $57.91

Capacity is the whole recipe in meat.

The Nebraska beef plant closure helps match processing with a tight cattle herd, which can cool the scramble for animals and support packer spreads.

Pair that with steady seasonal poultry demand and the near-term setup looks cleaner than it did a few months ago. 

Tyson has been focusing on mix and cost control across beef, pork, and chicken.

Fewer underperforming lines means less waste and fewer headaches, which is exactly what you want when the herd is small and feed and freight still swing around.

What matters next is discipline. Management needs to keep prioritizing profitable volume over chasing share.

If cattle costs settle and the company keeps trimming low-return capacity, margin repair in 2026 becomes more believable. The dividend pays you to wait.

Why it matters for you: If cut spreads stabilize and costs behave, dips are for nibbling, not nibbling on leftovers.

📊 Stat of the Day: 46 million turkeys

Americans eat about 46 million turkeys on Thanksgiving, roughly 21% of the year’s total. The average bird weighs around 16 pounds, and the typical plate lands near 3,150 calories.

That is a lot of grocery trips, a lot of protein, and a neat snapshot of how food producers and big-box retailers set promos for the rest of the season.

Final Take

Tight supply helps protein margins, value retail is winning the footrace, and the e-commerce big guns are chasing the same prize: bigger carts with better ads.

Airlines are the real-time consumer survey and the terminals look busy. Keep your core in operators with clear holiday catalysts and clean cash engines.

Add on red days, skip the stories that only work if everything goes perfectly, and enjoy the bird.