The Task App Everyone Uses Might Be Setting Up For A Comeback

Some software names do not need a new market cycle to work.

They just need customers to stop consolidating, budgets to loosen a bit, and one product upgrade that feels meaningfully better than what teams already tolerate.

This one has been left for dead, but the ingredients for a surprise rebound are starting to show up.

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Affirm Holdings | AFRM

Price: $61.99

Affirm is the cleanest “buy now, pay later” brand in a space that still gets judged like it is a 2021 fad. The stock is basically flat year over year, but the business has continued to embed itself into checkout flows where consumers already spend.

The interesting part is not whether BNPL exists. It is whether Affirm can keep pushing into larger merchants and prove it can grow while tightening credit performance and unit economics.

If the macro backdrop stays resilient, BNPL volumes can remain surprisingly steady, and Affirm tends to benefit when retailers want conversion tools without cutting prices.

The risk is obvious: if delinquencies tick up, investors stop caring about growth and start caring about losses.

Why it matters for you: AFRM is a sentiment-driven fintech. If credit holds and merchant adoption stays strong, it can trade like a growth name again rather than a macro landmine.

Upstart Holdings | UPST

Price: $39.69

Upstart is still a high-beta bet on the credit cycle, but it is also one of the few consumer lending platforms trying to sell a real underwriting edge instead of just loan volume.

The stock is down sharply over the last year, which tells you the market is still skeptical about consistent profitability and funding stability.

The bull case is that as rates stabilize and lending partners regain confidence, approval rates and volumes can recover fast.

If that happens, the operating leverage can show up quickly, because Upstart does not need a massive headcount increase to originate more loans.

The bear case is that it stays trapped in a loop of cautious funding and uneven demand, which keeps revenue lumpy and multiples compressed.

Why it matters for you: UPST can move violently on small changes in outlook. If credit conditions improve even modestly, this one can rebound hard, but sizing matters.

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Shift4 Payments | FOUR

Price: $58.50

Shift4 is what you buy when you want exposure to payments growth but do not want to overthink consumer credit risk.

The stock has been crushed over the past year, which is usually the market signaling concerns about growth durability, competition, and take-rate pressure.

The setup here is that payments names can look ugly right before they look “cheap” again, especially if they keep expanding into software-driven verticals like hospitality, stadiums, and larger enterprise merchants.

If Shift4 can show steadier revenue growth, clean margin execution, and continued cross-sell into higher value services, investors can revalue it from “broken” to “rebuilding.”

Why it matters for you: FOUR is a classic reset story. If execution tightens and growth looks less volatile, the stock can recover without needing a perfect macro environment.

Marqeta | MQ

Price: $4.16

Marqeta is not a flashy consumer brand, but it powers a lot of the card programs sitting behind modern fintech and embedded finance.

The stock is barely up over the last year and still trades like investors are unsure what “normal” growth looks like after the first wave of fintech hype cooled.

The more constructive angle is that Marqeta has been pushing toward higher quality revenue and improved profitability, with growth coming from processing volume and platform services rather than purely headline expansion.

When the market starts caring about durable gross profit and operating discipline again, these infrastructure enablers can re-rate.

The risk is concentration and customer dependence: if a major program slows, sentiment turns quickly.

Why it matters for you: MQ is an infrastructure lever on fintech activity. If it keeps showing real financial progress, it can earn a better multiple than the market is giving it today.

Asana | ASAN

Price: $9.91

Asana is the kind of software that teams adopt because it reduces chaos, then later question because they are trying to consolidate spend.

That is why net retention has been under pressure and why the stock has been punished.

The opportunity is that expectations are now low enough that “less bad” performance can matter.
The next phase likely comes down to two things: retention stabilizing and AI features that feel additive rather than cosmetic.

If management can prove it is near the bottom in retention and AI-driven products start contributing real bookings, the market can shift from dismissive to cautiously interested.

But it is still a prove-it story, especially with leadership transition headlines lingering in the background.

Why it matters for you: ASAN is a perception trade. If retention stops bleeding and AI monetization shows up in the numbers, the stock can bounce without needing a full tech mania. 

Stat of the Day: 2.2%–2.4%

The World Bank is floating a bullish idea: the U.S. “speed limit” for non-inflationary growth may be higher than many models assume, potentially around 2.2% to 2.4%, versus the Congressional Budget Office estimate near 1.8%.

If that proves true, it is a tailwind for risk assets, because it implies the economy can grow faster without forcing the Fed into a more aggressive stance. The catch is that this is a debate, not a done deal, so markets will still trade the data month to month.