The Mall Mainstay Printing Cashflow For Your Portfolio

A once-dominant scent seller just took a 50%+ drubbing this year, leaving a single-digit P/E, a solid dividend, and plenty of skeptics. The setup is binary.

Fix the mix, traffic, and promos into better margins, or let optionality (licensing, SKU pruning, international) do the lifting.

When expectations are this low, small execution wins can matter a lot.

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Air Products & Chemicals | APD

Price: $230.76

Shares slid on advanced negotiations for low-emission ammonia projects with Yara, proof that project risk still sets the tone.

The core gas franchise is high quality, but investors want firm terms, returns, and funding clarity on mega-capex.

Until they see it, anything that hints at timeline or IRR drift gets sold. 

The bull case: APD’s balance sheet and JV discipline can underwrite long-dated decarbonization molecules (blue/green hydrogen, low-carbon ammonia) with utility-like offtakes. 

The bear case: lumpy cash flows, execution drag, and equity raising in an unfriendly tape.

Near term, focus on price/cost in the base business, new plants ramping on time, and whether management will narrow guidance once details land.

Why it matters for you: Treat headlines as entry/exit catalysts. If final terms show robust take-or-pay and credible returns, sentiment can flip quickly; if not, let it prove itself before sizing up.

Dollar General | DG

Price: $125.58

The plan is very on-brand with about ~450 new stores in 2026, bigger footprints, more coolers, and expanded HBA to catch trade-down and fill-in trips.

Add steady remodels (Elevate/Renovate) and you’ve got a multi-year box-level ROI engine, especially in rural markets where DG is utility retail. 

Mix and shrink are the swing factors. Traffic has firmed with lower gas prices and improving sentiment, but labor, shrink, and safety capex still nip at margins. 

The story tends to work when comps are positive, markdowns are controlled, and private label penetration creeps up.

With shares well off last year’s lows, the next leg depends on clean execution through tax-refund season and whether units per basket hold without promo bloat.

Why it matters for you: Track cooler penetration, perishables spoilage, and shrink trend. If SG&A discipline holds while new format stores comp above chain average, the rerate toward historical multiples can continue.

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Corning | GLW

Price: $91.11

AI datacenters have turned fiber and connectivity into the profit center: optical now drives more than half of core profit, and that concentration is the thesis, and the risk. 

Springboard initiatives point to sustained demand (high-bandwidth links, co-packaged optics), plus optionality in display glass, mobile cover, and life sciences.

The near-term question is cadence: hyperscaler build schedules, lead times, and whether 2026 capex budgets stay intact after a blistering 2025. 

Gross margin leverage should improve as mix tilts further to optical and yields scale, but investors will punish any hint of digestion.

Balance sheet flexibility and IP depth help, and a modest dividend keeps income holders around.

Why it matters for you: Watch book-to-bill in optical, backlog visibility, and commentary on customer push-outs.

If AI plumbing stays hot into mid-’26, estimates likely drift higher and the premium multiple looks justified.

Clorox | CLX

Price: $101.38

A tough year price-wise despite inching fundamentals: post-cyberattack recovery, ERP modernization, and slow-but-steady margin rebuild.

The category is sleepy, but staples work when execution is clean, with fewer outages, better service levels, and normalized trade spend. 

The ERP cutover brings noise yet promises long-term efficiency: better demand planning, faster innovation cycles, and structurally lower costs.

Private label is the thorn; elasticities in cleaning and wipes are real, so shelf discipline and promo ROI matter. 

With the stock down sharply and yield near 5%, you’re underwriting a margin arc, not a growth spurt.

If gross margin expands on mix and input normalization while share is defended, the multiple can lift from trough levels.

Why it matters for you: Focus on supply chain KPIs, promo depth, and retailer feedback on on-time/in-full. Two clean quarters post-ERP would go a long way toward re-building trust.

Bath & Body Works | BBWI

Price: $19.02

The stock has been cut in half in 2025 as discretionary spend softened and promotions crept up, but the valuation gap is now doing heavy signaling.

At ~6x earnings and a ~4% yield, you’re being paid to see if merchandising and fleet tweaks stabilize comps. 

Management’s playbook is straightforward: fewer, bigger hero franchises; tighter promo windows; more giftable sets into holiday; and ongoing store refreshes that lift basket size.

The balance sheet isn’t distressed, free cash flow conversion is still attractive, and category loyalty hasn’t vanished, it has just gotten price sensitive.

Bears will point to mall traffic, competing dupes, and higher elasticity; fair. But a modest bounce in traffic, better mix (aromatherapy/seasonal), and cleaner inventory can re-rate a name this cheap.

Why it matters for you: Watch holiday sell-through, clearance intensity, and gross margin cadence. If markdowns ease and units hold, the multiple has room to heal without heroics.

📊 Stat of the Day: 13% earnings growth
S&P 500 operating earnings are tracking another record in 2025, up ~13% year-over-year, nearly double the post-1989 historical pace.

That backdrop favors high-quality cyclicals with operating leverage and defensives repairing margins; it also means low-expectation stories can re-rate fast on small beats.