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- The Heavy-Metal Comeback Story with a High Stakes Twist
The Heavy-Metal Comeback Story with a High Stakes Twist
Steel might be its roots, but this metals story is evolving fast. After months of building momentum, the company is diving into rare-earth exploration.
You'll want to pay attention if you love a high-risk, speculative play.
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
October 22 – Pre‑market
Ticker: CLF | Sector: Steel / Basic Materials | Market Cap: ~$6.7B
30‑Second Take
Cleveland-Cliffs has been quietly heating up.
After spending the first half of the year in the penalty box, the stock surged over 40% YTD as steel demand stabilized, and optimism returned to the materials space.
But here comes the plot twist: management has just announced plans to re-enter the rare earth mining game in Michigan and Minnesota, giving CLF a whole new growth narrative and a delicious offering for investors with a high-risk tolerance.
If that sounds like you, CLF is an energetic mix of momentum meets reinvention: a legacy steelmaker turning heads again, with a shot at catching the next strategic minerals wave.
Trade Setup
Timeframe: Tactical to long-term, depending on momentum follow-through
Edge type: Catalyst-driven momentum trade
Cleveland-Cliffs has flipped the script from old-school steelmaker to rare-earth contender, and the market’s paying attention.
The stock’s breakout on heavy volume suggests traders are betting this isn’t just a one-day wonder. You'll need to monitor progress as this could go either way.
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Snapshot Table
Metric | Value | Current Stance |
|---|---|---|
Price | $13.38 | Below average |
52‑week range | $ 5.63 - $16.70 | Below average |
Short interest | 14.68% | Above average |
Next catalyst | Next update from the Michigan and Minnesota rare-earth sites |
Chart
1-month trading summary: Over CLF has climbed steadily in the past month, breaking through resistance levels and logging a roughly 25% gain at its October peak.
Volume picked up noticeably after management's announcement that it intended to refocus on rare-earth mining.
After the news hit, CLF spiked above $15 before settling around the mid-$13s, still well above September levels.
In short, momentum's intact, and the market is giving this pivot story a very close look.
Bull Case
A rare earth reinvention that’s kicking up dust: The Cleveland-Cliffs bull case comes down to exactly one thing: reinvention.
The company’s move to explore rare earth mining in Michigan and Minnesota gives Wall Street something fresh to chew on in the form of a growth narrative that stretches beyond steel.
With the U.S. government pushing hard to onshore critical mineral supply chains, CLF’s timing looks sharp.
Add in a steady rebound in auto production (a major end market for its flat-rolled steel) and a balance sheet that’s finally lightening up, and you’ve got a company that’s trading like it just found a second act.
For a stock that’s long been pigeonholed as cyclical, this new strategic angle could be exactly what pulls in a broader crowd of investors.
The question is, will you be amongst them?
A speculative side quest that could pay off big: If you like a little adventure in your portfolio, this is where things get interesting.
Cleveland-Cliffs’ rare-earth move isn’t just a headline. Oh no. It’s a speculative side quest that could pay off big if the company proves up those Michigan and Minnesota sites.
Expect updates on surveys, drilling results, or potential JV partners to light up the tape. And don’t forget earnings.
A cleaner balance sheet in Q4 and any hint of steel price stability could fuel another leg higher.
Layer in possible government support for domestic critical minerals, and you’ve got multiple wildcards in play.
It’s not a stock for the cautious crowd, but CLF could be a fun rollercoaster if you're a risk-taker.
Price targets: The rare-earth pivot has yet to be priced into Wall Street expectations.
The current low target is $7.80, with a high of $14.50.
Technical signals indicate bullish momentum: Momentum’s firmly on CLF’s side right now, with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the RSI parked in bullish territory without flashing overbought.
Bear Case
A turnaround with risk: Let’s be real. This is a speculative play wrapped in a turnaround story.
The rare-earth push sounds exciting, but it's still just an idea on paper. Developing those sites could take years, with no guarantee that the economics make sense.
Meanwhile, CLF's bread and butter is still steel, and if demand softens or prices roll over, that shiny new narrative won't save earnings.
Add in higher input costs and the market's short memory for hype, and you've got the recipe for a sharp pullback if the story stalls.
A mixed macro backdrop: The macro backdrop is mixed at best. Steel prices have steadied, but they remain hostage to global demand and China's output decisions.
A construction or auto production slowdown could knock the wind out of CLF's sails just as its rare-earth story gains traction.
Add in higher borrowing costs and lingering inflation pressures on energy and materials, and it's clear the tide isn't entirely friendly, even for the bold.
Facing fierce competition in two different worlds: In steel, CLF’s up against heavyweights like Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD).
They are both leaner, higher-margin operators trading at richer valuations.
On the rare-earth side, MP Materials (MP) remains the only meaningful U.S. producer, giving CLF a long runway to catch up and highlighting the execution risk ahead.
Consider it this way: CLF's trying to straddle two very different worlds, with established steel on one side and emerging critical minerals on the other.
It needs to prove it can compete in both.
Attracting a crowd: There’s a growing crowd chasing anything tied to critical minerals right now, from lithium to rare earths, and that level of hype can fade just as quickly as it emerged.
If sentiment cools or another name grabs the spotlight, CLF’s newfound buzz could get drowned out.
Quick Checklist
✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (October 21, 2025)
Deep‑Dive Links
That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha