30‑Second Take

Why now? Wall Street analysts expect OTLY stock to surge by 82.7%, giving this plant-powered pick a notable surge of momentum. The positive analyst outlook is backed up by gains of 29.09% in the last month, improved financial performance, bullish investor sentiment, and positive technical indicators. On track to deliver its first full year of profitable growth as a public company, it’s well-positioned to continue this growth phase.

Trade Setup

Time frame: Swing to medium-term
Edge type: Momentum breakout

Snapshot Table

Chart

5-Day Synopsis

OTLY stock has maintained a strong upward trajectory over the last five days. It has been gathering momentum slowly but surely for the previous month, but that energy has now kicked into higher gear. This could be a pivotal week for the world’s largest oat milk company; on Wednesday, Wall Street analysts confirmed a short-term mean price target of $18.74. That’s the equivalent of an 80% + break to the upside.

Bull Case 

Core thesis: Oatley is a global pioneer in dairy alternatives. Its oat milk products capitalize on long-term shifts in consumer preferences toward plant-based, sustainable, and health-conscious products. With a strong brand identity, proprietary oat-based technology, and vertically integrated production capabilities, Oatly is well-positioned to drive growth through global expansion, product innovation, and increasing mainstream adoption. It’s a high-growth, mission-driven brand at the forefront of the broader plant-based movement.

Catalysts: The company's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed that it had narrowed its losses and was starting to see favourable returns from long-term efficiency programs. As a result, it expects revenue to increase by 2%- 4% in 2025, with CEO Jean-Christophe Flatin confirming the company is on track to deliver its first full year of profitable growth as a public company.

Valuation upside: The consensus price target ranges from $10.20 to a high of $40.00.

Technical tailwind: Technical indicators support a bullish outlook in the near term, while a general upward momentum signals a good buying opportunity.

Bear Case 

Key risk: The Q1 earnings report was full of positive advances, but the lack of profitability remains a concern. It is still working to improve efficiency across its supply chain, so the impact of those measures may not be apparent for a while yet.

Macro/sector headwinds: Sales of plant-based milk in the USA have declined by around 5% over the last 12 months, creating a challenging trade environment in a key market. 

Competitive threat: With the European appetite for plant-based dairy products growing year by year, competition in the sector is increasing. It may face a threat from established dairy brands. Danone is a case in point; it has begun increasing its plant-based product portfolio to win market share.

Crowded-trade concern: Recent forecasts around short-term growth potential could attract speculative traders. There is also a danger that Oatley will miss its full-year profitability target, having confirmed declining sales and revenue in its Q1 fiscal report.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (Consensus price target – May 21, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha