The Developer Cloud Getting Pulled Into the AI Arms Race

Some platforms do not need to win the headlines to win the workload.

They just need to be the easiest place for developers and smaller teams to ship products, then quietly expand into higher-value layers as demand shifts.

Right now, the market is paying a lot for AI narratives, but it is still underpricing the businesses that keep getting selected behind the scenes.

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Twilio | TWLO

Price: $120.46

Twilio is still best known as the plumbing for calls, texts, and customer interactions, but the angle investors care about now is whether it becomes a real infrastructure layer for AI-driven customer service.

A recent UBS note pointed to customer checks showing more enterprises evaluating or deploying Twilio for AI voice agents and messaging workflows, with early deployments already lifting spending for some customers.

The setup is straightforward. If AI automates more support and sales conversations, interaction volume can rise, and Twilio gets paid on usage.

That is a better model for this cycle than seat-based software, because it scales with activity.

The risk is that the stock has a history of promising re-acceleration that did not fully land, and valuation can punish any stumble in guidance.

Why it matters for you: TWLO is a usage-based AI beneficiary. If voice automation adoption becomes mainstream, the rerate can be driven by fundamentals, not hype.

Okta | OKTA

Price: $84.48

Okta is the identity layer, and identity keeps getting more valuable as companies add more apps, more clouds, and more AI agents that need permissioning.

The company has also been working through a multi-quarter story reset where investors want cleaner execution and steadier growth, not just product ambition.

Recent coverage has emphasized that Okta’s fundamentals remain solid, even when the stock reacts violently to macro caution, and that the company is guiding fiscal 2026 with a more conservative posture than the market tends to reward in the short run.

The bull case is that identity is non-optional spend, and Okta sits in the center of that budget.

The bear case is that Microsoft can keep bundling pressure high, which caps multiple expansion unless Okta proves it can consistently outperform on execution.

Why it matters for you: OKTA is a quality security franchise. If growth plus margin discipline stabilizes, it can re-rate without needing a risk-on market.

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SentinelOne | S

Price: $13.98

SentinelOne looks like a classic washout setup.

The stock is near lows and sentiment is poor, but the company keeps shipping credible progress in government and enterprise readiness.

One notable milestone is GovRAMP Authorization at the High Impact level for its Singularity Platform, which matters because it expands access to state and local government workloads that require strict compliance.

At the same time, the market is demanding proof that SentinelOne can translate product strength into profitable scale. That is the core debate.

The company has talked about balancing growth with efficiency, and the valuation reflects skepticism that it will win share fast enough versus larger endpoint players.

This one trades less on a single headline and more on whether the next few quarters show repeatable execution.

Why it matters for you: S is an execution rebound candidate. If margins and growth trajectory improve even modestly, the upside can be sharp because expectations are so low.

Appian | APPN

Price: $27.90

Appian is the process automation name that keeps finding its way into serious, long-duration contracts.

The most important recent datapoint is the US Army Enterprise Agreement that can total up to $500 million over 10 years, covering platform licenses, support, and cloud services.

That kind of deal is not just revenue, it is validation that Appian’s platform can sit in the middle of mission-critical workflows.

Appian also added ScienceLogic CEO David Link to its board, which reads as a signal that management wants deeper expertise in scaling enterprise software and applying AI and automation to complex operations.

The risk is that Appian has to keep proving it can compound growth while controlling costs.

The opportunity is that workflow automation becomes more valuable, not less, as AI increases complexity inside large organizations.

Why it matters for you: APPN is a contract-driven compounder. If federal and large enterprise traction continues, the market can start pricing it more like durable infrastructure software.

DigitalOcean | DOCN

Price: $55.25

DigitalOcean is quietly evolving from a simple cloud for developers into an AI-capable platform that can win workloads from teams that do not want the complexity of the big clouds.

A key proof point is its Inference Cloud Platform work with Character.ai, where the company said it doubled inference throughput and cut cost per token by 50%.

It has also been expanding its AI ecosystem, including enabling access to hundreds of models through fal on its Gradient AI Platform.

Management is also investing in product leadership, including appointing Vinay Kumar as Chief Product and Technology Officer.

The market question is whether these AI moves translate into durable growth in a business that historically lived in the SMB developer lane.

If they do, DOCN stops being a small cloud story and starts being an AI infrastructure story with a very different multiple.

Why it matters for you: DOCN is an under-the-radar AI infrastructure angle. If inference and model hosting scale, the upside is not just revenue growth, it is narrative elevation.

📊 Stat of the Day: 10% +/- 2%

The S&P 500’s long-run average annual return is about 10%, but reality rarely looks average. Using annual total returns going back to 1928, only about five years landed in the 8% to 12% range.

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