30‑Second Take

Advanced Micro Devices signed a $10B dollar deal with Advance Global AI early last week to build the world’s most efficient AI infrastructure. Set to power the future of global intelligence, its stock price has gained 31.4% in the last month. It has also won over a few key clients from its main rival, NVIDIA and recently announced a share buyback program, which is a tell that the AMD board is confident in its future growth prospects.

Trade Setup

Time frame:  Swing to medium term
Edge type: Momentum breakout + catalyst anticipation

AMD offers an interesting set-up with cases for short, medium and long-term investors. Short-term traders can play breakouts, while investors mindful of a longer-term strategy should accumulate on dips to position for the upside.

Snapshot Table

Chart

5-Day Synopsis

For AMD, the last week has been characterized by six days of consecutive gains and a breakout above the 5-day moving average.

AMD has exhibited some signs of testing its new breakout target of $150, buoyed by its new strategic collaboration with Advance Global AI. It reached its highest level in more than three months on Wednesday and by Friday lunchtime, the stock had added 14.2% to its value for the week.

This run was fueled by its deal with the Saudia Arabia firm and the planned $6 billion share buyback announcement.

Having turned in a fairly lackluster performance over the last couple of years, the last week has given signs that AMD is sparking back to life. It’s still a little way off its 52-week high but there have been positive developments across the week that could fuel a surge of momentum over the coming days.

Bull Case 

Core Thesis – AMD’s strength lies in its diverse product portfolio, which encompasses its strong CPU division and dominance in the console market. Unlike its main rival NIVIDIA, it has ongoing contracts with Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. Add to this, it has recently begun a push into AI and data center markets to strengthen its challenge. AMD is playing a long game by positioning itself as a full-stack chipmaker with open technologies.  

Catalysts – AMD stock has gained around 50% since its lowest point in April, largely due to its new client wins and strategic agreements. It could make further advances 

Valuation Upside - AMD seems to have roared into life over the past month or so, fueled by better-than-expected growth figures, a significant new partnership, and a successful raid on rival NVIDIA’s customer base. Its revenue has risen by 36% in the last year with analysts tipping this stock to reach a range of $132 to $200 over the next 12 months.  

Technical tailwind – The recent Advance Global AI deal, a series of acquisitions and data center investment has fed Advance Micro Devices with a new burst of energy.

Bear Case 

Key Risk – AMD is reliant on substantial revenue inflows from consumer PCs and gaming consoles. These markets are cyclical, and recent signs suggest the post-pandemic boom is cooling, which could dampen near-term growth.

Macro/sector headwinds: Like all tech stocks, AMD is at the mercy of inflation and trade tariffs. Fluctuations in either of those factors could turn into a headwind for progress. 

Competitive Threat: Key rival NVIDIA has announced plans to muscle in on AMD’s territory with a planned expansion into premium CPUs.

Crowded-trade concern: The tech and AI market is notoriously volatile, and AMD could face corrections if the promise suggested by its recent developments is slow to materialize.

 Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (strategic partnership)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha