Stacking the Deck for a Breakout

30‑Second Take

Why now? Gambling.com Group is gaining momentum ahead of its Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 15. The company has shown consistent growth in revenue and profitability, and recent institutional investments suggest confidence in its future performance.

Time frame: Swing to medium-term position
Edge type: Momentum breakout with earnings-driven catalyst

Trade Setup

• Entry Zone: $14.00–$14.50

• Trigger: Close above $14.50 on above-average volume

• Target Range: $16.50–$18.00 over 2–3 months

• Stop-Loss: Close below $13.00

• Reward/Risk Ratio: Approximately 2.5:1
  

This setup is tailored for swing-to-medium-term traders aiming to capitalize on Gambling.com Group's recent positive momentum. The stock has been steadily climbing, and a decisive close above $14.50, especially on increased volume, could signal the start of a new upward trend.

Fundamentally, the company is expected to report Q1 2025 earnings of $0.25 per share on revenue of $40.07 million. Recent institutional investments, including Driehaus Capital Management LLC purchasing over 500,000 shares, indicate strong investor confidence.

Snapshot Table

Chart

5-Day Synopsis:

Over the past week, Gambling.com Group (GAMB) stock has exhibited a steady upward trend. Starting from approximately $13.17 on May 2, 2025, the stock has consistently closed higher each day, reaching $13.67 by May 9. This progression indicates strong investor confidence and suggests potential for further growth.

Technical indicators support this positive outlook. The stock has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 60, signaling bullish momentum. Volume has been increasing modestly, indicating growing investor interest. If GAMB breaks above the $14.50 resistance level with conviction, it could pave the way toward the $16.50–$18.00 target range over the next 2–3 months.

Bull Case 

Core thesis: Gambling.com Group specializes in digital marketing services for the global online gambling industry. As the sector continues to grow, the company's niche focus positions it to benefit from increased demand.

Catalysts: The company's Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled for May 15, could further boost investor sentiment if positive trends continue. Recent institutional investments suggest confidence in the company's growth prospects.

Valuation upside: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $17.67, reflecting a potential upside of approximately 29% from the current price.

Technical tailwind: The stock is approaching its 52-week high, and a breakout above this level could attract momentum traders. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook in the near term.

Bear Case 

Key risk: The company's reliance on the online gambling sector makes it vulnerable to regulatory changes and shifts in consumer behavior, which could impact demand for its services.

Macro/sector headwind: Economic downturns or increased competition in the online gambling industry could pressure margins and affect revenue growth.

Competitive threat: Larger digital marketing firms with broader service offerings and more extensive client networks could pose competitive challenges, potentially impacting market share.

Crowded-trade concern: With a short interest of approximately 6.39% of the float, the stock may be susceptible to volatility if short sellers increase pressure or if investor sentiment shifts.

Quick Checklist

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (Q1 earnings – May 15, 2025)
✅ Portfolio correlation OK (low overlap with tech/energy sectors)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha