Rumor Meets Reality: When Quantum Dreams Collide with Washington Whispers

In partnership with

Founders need better information

Get a single daily brief that filters the noise and delivers the signals founders actually use.

All the best stories — curated by a founder who reads everything so you don't have to.

And it’s totally free. We pay to subscribe, you get the good stuff.

Get the brief

30‑Second Take

Quantum stocks are suddenly having their moment, and D-Wave’s right in the middle of it.

Word on the street (and more than a few media headlines) is that the White House might invest directly in quantum-computing companies.

Whether that rumor has legs or not, it lit a fire under the whole sector, and D-Wave’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries.

This is a name that’s been quietly working on real-world quantum applications while rivals chase headlines. Now the spotlight’s finally back on this high-risk, high-reward play.

Trade Setup

Timeframe: Short-to-medium term (2–8 weeks)

Edge Type: Momentum meets speculation, fueled by government-rumor buzz and renewed attention on quantum tech plays.

This one’s all about riding the wave of hype while keeping one eye on the exit.

The chart shows strong volume and bullish sentiment, but confirmation from Washington (or any real contract news) would be the spark that could send it to the next level.

$30.91

Snapshot Table

Chart

1-month trading summary: D-Wave’s up 12.97% over the past month. That’s not bad going for a stock that’s usually more rollercoaster than rocket.

The stock had been drifting lower through mid-October before turning around on reports that the White House is considering investing directly in quantum-computing companies.

It's a big swing from quiet consolidation to full-on momentum, but this could be just the kind of setup that gets speculative money moving fast.

Bull Case 

Rare real-world traction: If quantum computing really is the next arms race, D-Wave’s already got a seat at the table.

While rivals like IonQ and Rigetti focus on gate-based systems that are still largely experimental, D-Wave’s quantum annealing tech is already being used by paying customers, including logistics firms and government agencies.

That gives it something rare in this space: real-world traction.

Now, toss in the rumour that the White House might take equity stakes in key quantum players, and suddenly the market’s re-rating the whole sector.

D-Wave could be a prime beneficiary of that shift, not just because of the potential funding, but because it would validate its commercial-first approach.

For you, this looks like a classic moonshot setup to mull over: a small-cap tech pioneer sitting right where the hype, policy, and future potential intersect.

Commercial adoption could prove the next catalyst: The obvious near-term spark is the rumor of a White House quantum investment.

If that turns into a formal announcement or even a confirmed funding initiative, expect another leg higher across the sector. 

Beyond that, D-Wave’s next earnings report could offer an update on commercial adoption and new enterprise contracts, both of which are key markers for credibility in the quantum race.

Longer term, watch for progress on D-Wave's gate-model quantum program, which could help bridge the gap between its current annealing systems and the broader direction the industry's moving.

Any new partnerships with Fortune 500 clients or government research contracts would also serve as major validation points.

In a sector built on hype and hope, tangible deals can move the stock fast.

Price targets range from $20.00 to $50.00. 

Technical tailwinds: D-Wave spiked as high as $46.75 earlier this month before pulling back to the low $30s.

However, volumes are now picking up once again, and the stock is trading above the 50- and 200-day moving averages, suggesting new momentum could be building.

Bear Case 

Early-stage cash burn: D-Wave’s fundamentals remain early-stage: revenue is modest, profitability is a distant dream, and cash burn is real.

The most significant risk here is that the hype runs ahead of the facts.

The government investment story is still just a rumor, and there is a risk it could fade without any real policy or funding to back it.

Add in the sector’s tendency for wild mood swings, and it’s easy to see how this could retrace sharply if the buzz dies down.

In short, it’s a pure sentiment play right now.

A small, but intensely competitive crowd: D-Wave runs with a small but intense crowd. IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti (RGTI) grab most of the headlines with their gate-based quantum systems.

This is flashier, more experimental tech that promises huge potential but is still years from prime time.

D-Wave, on the other hand, leans into quantum annealing, which is better suited to solving the optimization problems companies actually face today.

That distinction matters. While IonQ and Rigetti are selling the dream, D-Wave is pitching a service that companies can use now.

Still, it's a challenging field, with all three remaining unprofitable, highly speculative, and competing for the same limited pool of investor patience and government backing.

If Washington ends up picking favorites, not everyone will get a seat at the table.

A real need to show commercial value: Quantum remains a money pit until the tech catches up, meaning higher rates and tighter funding make life harder for every player in the space.

Add global competition from China and Europe, and there's real pressure on U.S. firms to prove commercial value quickly.

Crowded trade concern: With the “White House quantum” story making headlines, everyone and their day-trading cousin is suddenly piling into the same few tickers — D-Wave, IonQ, Rigetti.

When that kind of buzz fades, momentum unwinds fast. If you’re late to the party, you might end up holding the bag once the rumour mill cools off.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (October 23, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q2 2025 Earnings 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha