Planting the Seeds of a Fertilizer Re-Rating

30‑Second Take

The Mosaic Company is trading like a tired commodity stock at the exact moment fertilizer is becoming strategic again.

A fresh executive order aimed at boosting domestic supply shifts the backdrop from cyclical pressure to policy support.

At the same time, the stock sits at just 7x earnings with EPS expected to grow 28.3 percent this fiscal year.

That’s the mismatch.

Policy tailwinds. Earnings acceleration. A single-digit multiple. When the narrative lags behind the fundamentals, that is where we lean in.

Trade Setup

Time frame: Medium term

Edge type: Policy-backed cyclical re-rating with operating leverage

MOS isn’t a one-week momentum chase; it's a medium-term repositioning trade.

The edge sits in narrative lag. The market still treats Mosaic like a late-cycle fertilizer name dealing with phosphate curtailments and soft demand.

But the backdrop is shifting. Policy support for domestic supply changes the risk profile, and earnings are expected to sharply re-accelerate this fiscal year.

Snapshot Table

Chart

1-month trading summary: The Mosaic Company is starting to emerge from a lengthy slumber. After spending much of the last year drifting and underperforming, the chart now shows higher lows and improving momentum.

The recent gain is not explosive, but it is constructive and looks less like a speculative spike and more like quiet accumulation.

The key shift is character. Sellers are no longer pressing aggressively into strength. Pullbacks are being absorbed.

If the stock can build above recent resistance and hold those levels, the narrative will quickly flip from ‘stuck in the downcycle’ to ‘early recovery trade’.

Bull Case 

Strategic dirt, discounted price: The Mosaic Company is still being valued like a late-cycle commodity name, but the reality underneath is more resilient.

Phosphate and potash are core to global food production. That makes Mosaic less optional than the market pricing suggests.

When fertilizer moves from cyclical input to strategic resource, the risk profile changes entirely. 

The stock trades at just 7.24x earnings while EPS is expected to grow 28.3 percent this fiscal year. That is a recovery earnings profile sitting on a downturn multiple.

Yes, shipments have been soft, and Brazil curtailments reflect cost pressure. But dig a little deeper, and it soon becomes apparent that MOS is really a classic cycle inflection setup hiding behind a commodity label.

Fuel for the next harvest: With EPS expected to grow more than 28 percent this fiscal year, any sign that margins are stabilizing or volumes are rebuilding forces the market to confront that 7x multiple. Cheap stocks with accelerating earnings do not stay ignored for long.

Fertilizer pricing and shipment trends are the heartbeat. If phosphate demand begins to firm or Brazil curtailments ease as cost pressures normalize, the “stuck in the downcycle” narrative starts to crack.

And then there is policy follow-through. If domestic fertilizer initiatives move from headlines to tangible support, Mosaic shifts further from a cyclical miner to a strategic supplier.

This name does not need fireworks. It needs confirmation. In a discounted stock, confirmation is fuel.

A wide price range: The low target sits at $24.00, suggesting downside if the cycle rolls over again.

The high stretches to $38.20, implying meaningful upside if earnings traction and multiple expansion take hold.

Higher lows in the field: The recent price action is starting to tell a different story than it did over the last 12 months. Higher lows are forming. Pullbacks are being bought rather than punished.

Momentum is quietly improving without the stock feeling extended or euphoric. This is what early rotation looks like. Not vertical. Not crowded. Just steady accumulation.

Bear Case 

Cycles can stay ugly longer than you expect: This is still a fertilizer business. And fertilizer is still cyclical.

If crop prices weaken, farmers pull back on nutrient application. If global demand softens, pricing power evaporates quickly. Brazil curtailments already show how fast margins compress when costs rise, and shipments fall.

The real risk is not that Mosaic is broken. It is that the cycle does not turn as quickly as bulls expect. In that scenario, a 7x multiple does not look cheap. It looks accurate.

In commodity names, timing is everything. Get it wrong, and value becomes a trap.

Scale can squeeze margins: In a downturn, competition gets sharper.

Nutrien brings enormous potash scale and global distribution reach. CF Industries benefits from strong nitrogen positioning tied to energy cost dynamics.

If nutrient pricing stays weak, larger or lower-cost operators can defend margins more aggressively, putting pressure on peers. In a prolonged soft cycle, market share battles and pricing discipline matter more than growth narratives.

For Mosaic, the risk is not irrelevance. It is margin compression in a field where scale often wins.

When the farm belt tightens, Fertilizer demand ultimately flows from farm economics. If corn and soybean prices soften, farmers protect cash flow by trimming nutrient application rates. That hits volumes quickly.

Energy is another swing factor. Mining and processing phosphate and potash are cost-intensive. If fuel, natural gas, or transportation costs spike, margins compress even if selling prices hold steady.

Global trade policy also matters. Tariffs, export restrictions, or shifts in supply from major producers can disrupt pricing dynamics overnight.

This sector does not move in straight lines. It moves with crop cycles, commodity prices, and geopolitics. And when those variables turn against you, they rarely do so gently.

Not exactly a packed field: This is not an overcrowded momentum darling. Sentiment is still mixed, valuation is discounted, and the narrative remains a cyclical fertilizer name, not a must-own recovery play.

That cuts both ways. There is no euphoric positioning to unwind, but there is also no wave of forced buyers yet. If the thesis proves out, the crowd is more likely to arrive late than to rush for the exits.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (February 22, 2026)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q3 2025 Earnings 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha