Oversold, Undervalued, and Heating Up: This is a High-Risk Play with Breakout Potential

30‑Second Take

Why now? This is an intriguing time for TG Therapeutics – and a compelling moment for investors. That’s because stock prices are down by 17.25% in the last five sessions. 

The reason for the decline? TGTX’s earnings per share missed expectations by four cents, coming in at 17 cents rather than the expected 21 cents Wall Street wanted to see. 

However, the company has also lifted guidance from $560 million to $570 - $575 million for the full year 2025 after soaring sales of its flagship MS drug, BRIUMVI. Revenue for that grew by a staggering 91% year-on-year and 16% compared with the previous quarter. 

With the just-released Q2 earnings report outlining several innovations in the pipeline, including commercialization outside of the US, some estimates suggest TGTX is around 22% undervalued, with the potential for a significant seasonal leap into fall and winter.

The window to buy makes this a hard-to-ignore prospect for growth investors with a risk appetite.

Trade Setup

Time frame: Swing to medium-term
Edge type: Momentum breakout

Snapshot Table

Chart

1-Month Synopsis: Over the past month, TG Therapeutics (TGTX) has experienced a sharp pullback, dropping by approximately 18–19% with the stock trading near $30.00 down from its early-July levels above $35.00.

This decline followed the release of its Q2 2025 earnings in early August, where EPS missed analyst estimates by ~10%, despite revenue topping forecasts and lifted full-year guidance to ~$575 million.

Elevated trading volumes heightened the stock's volatility—several times its 3-month average—as investors reacted to the mixed results.

Bull Case 

Core thesis: TG Therapeutics specializes in B-cells and B-cell diseases to develop novel solutions for patients. It has a global network of community and clinical trial sites.

Its first product to achieve FDA approval is BRIUMVI, but it has four other products for MS and C-Cell diseases in its development pipeline. 

BRIUMVI has given TGTC strong commercial momentum, expanding addressable markets, and improving financials.

The drug provides an infusion-based treatment at a lower cost than competitors and with a favorable safety/tolerability profile compared to peers—making it appealing for payers, prescribers, and patients.

Catalysts: The 90% revenue increase for BRIUMVI YoY is a clear indicator that the drug has achieved bullish momentum and is rapidly gaining traction in a lucrative market. 

Building on the success of BRIUMVI in the three years since FDA approval, TGTX now has a subcutaneous version of the treatment in development, which could widen its use, increase convenience, and drive further adoption.

Top-line data from trials of the subcutaneous (SubQ) formulation is expected to be available by late 2025 or early 2026. 

If successful, the new formulation would offer patients and practitioners much greater convenience over the current infusion treatment, helping to drive increased market share, especially in community neurology practices.

In the best-case scenario, Briumvi could become a $1B+ annual revenue product by 2026–2027, carving out 15–20% share of the $20B+ MS market. 

Valuation upside: The highest price target is $53.00, with a low of $11.00. The average is $40.50. 

Technical tailwind: The technical tailwinds for TGTX suggest potential upside despite recent weaknesses, particularly if certain resistance levels are broken and momentum indicators recover.

The stock has seen surging volume in early August—nearly 2–3x its average daily trading volume on some days. While initially driven by selling, this capitulation volume could signal a base-building phase or institutional repositioning.

While the Relative Strength Index recently dropped into oversold territory, ~ 26, this pattern often precedes technical rebounds, especially in growth stocks with strong fundamentals.

Bear Case 

Key risk: TGTX is heavily reliant on Briumvi for revenue and profit as its other products remain in development.

This lack of a diversified pipeline means that any misstep, such as a safety concern or a sudden sales pullback, could send the stock tumbling.

Macro/sector headwinds: TGTX faces the same struggle that many mid-cap biotechs are grappling with: that of high interest rates and expectations of "higher for longer".

This environment reduces investor appetite for speculative growth stocks like biotechs because their cash flows are years down the line, and they often require high levels of external financing to sustain research and development initiatives. 

Regulatory challenges and clinical trial failures also dampen investor appetite and have seen many rotate out of the sector in recent years.

Competitive threat: The MS and autoimmune disease market is highly competitive with large biopharma companies all striving to grow market share.

Ocrevus (Roche) has a dominant IV treatment, while Kesimpta (Novartis) has also developed a subcutaneous treatment and is growing at a rapid clip.

While TGTX can compete with its pricing advantage, it may struggle to create and innovate at the same pace and scale.

Crowded-trade concern: TG Theraputics' ongoing success is highly dependent on the continuing success of Briumvi. One wrong move, slower growth, or a competitor gaining market share could see the stock slide sharply.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (August 03, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q2 2025 Earnings Report 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha