30‑Second Take

Why now? — The Chefs' Warehouse is gaining momentum following a robust Q1 earnings beat and strong revenue growth. With a focus on specialty food distribution to high-end clients, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the reopening of the hospitality sector and increased demand from upscale establishments.

Time frame — Swing to medium-term position

Edge type — Momentum breakout with earnings-driven catalyst

Trade Setup

Entry Zone: $61.00–$62.00
Trigger: Close above $63.00 on above-average volume
Target Range: $68.00–$72.00 over 2–3 months
Stop-Loss: Close below $59.00
Reward/Risk Ratio: Approx. 2.5:1

This setup suits swing-to-medium-term traders eyeing a breakout from consolidation. CHEF has steadily climbed since early May, reclaiming its 50-day moving average and approaching resistance around $63. A breakout above this level, especially with rising volume, could open a path toward a retest of prior highs near $70.

Fundamentally, Q1 2025 results were strong: net sales rose nearly 9% year-over-year and net income more than quintupled. With momentum building and demand recovering in the specialty food service segment, CHEF offers a compelling combination of technical strength and earnings-backed growth.

Snapshot Table

Chart

Over the past week, The Chefs' Warehouse (CHEF) stock has exhibited a steady upward trend. Starting from approximately $58.03 on May 2, 2025, the stock has consistently closed higher each day, reaching $62.41 by May 8. This progression indicates strong investor confidence and suggests potential for further growth.

Technical indicators support this positive outlook. The stock has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 60, signaling bullish momentum. Volume has been increasing modestly, indicating growing investor interest. If CHEF breaks above the $63.00 resistance level with conviction, it could pave the way toward the $68.00–$72.00 target range over the next 2–3 months.

Bull Case 

• Core thesis — The Chefs' Warehouse specializes in distributing high-quality, specialty food products to upscale restaurants, hotels, and caterers. As the hospitality industry rebounds, the company's niche focus positions it to benefit from increased demand.

• Catalysts — The company's Q1 2025 earnings report revealed an 8.7% year-over-year increase in net sales, reaching $950.7 million, and a significant rise in net income to $10.3 million. The upcoming Q2 earnings report on July 30 could further boost investor sentiment if positive trends continue.

• Valuation upside — Analysts have raised price targets, with UBS increasing its target to $68, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects. The stock's current valuation suggests room for appreciation as earnings improve.

• Technical tailwind — The stock is approaching its 52-week high, and a breakout above this level could attract momentum traders. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook in the near term.

Bear Case 

• Key risk — The company's reliance on the hospitality sector makes it vulnerable to economic downturns or disruptions in the industry, which could impact demand for its products.

• Macro/sector headwind — Rising food costs and supply chain challenges could pressure margins. Additionally, changes in consumer behavior or preferences may affect sales.

• Competitive threat — Larger food distributors with broader product offerings and more extensive distribution networks could pose competitive challenges, potentially impacting market share.

• Crowded-trade concern — With a short interest of approximately 9.31% of the float, the stock may be susceptible to volatility if short sellers increase pressure or if investor sentiment shifts.

Quick Checklist 

• ✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close

• ✅ Volume confirms move above key levels

• ✅ Catalyst date double-checked (Q2 earnings – July 30, 2025)

• ✅ Portfolio correlation OK (low overlap with tech/energy sectors)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha