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  • From Double Beat to Durable Growth This Design Platform Is Building Momentum

From Double Beat to Durable Growth This Design Platform Is Building Momentum

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A leading AEC software platform crushed earnings and lifted full-year targets with billings accelerating and margins expanding.

For investors, the focus is on recurring revenue adoption of new AI tools and whether valuation can sustain a breakout into Q4.

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Dollar Tree | DLTR

Price: $109.17

Dollar Tree has surged 43% this year, driven by strong results and a newly authorized 2.5 billion share repurchase plan.

The discount retailer beat Q2 expectations with revenue of $4.64 billion and EPS of $1.26, while announcing long-term guidance of $5.15 to $5.65 EPS for 2025.

Evercore ISI raised its price target to $110, while Wells Fargo increased its target to $130 and maintained an overweight rating.

Institutional ownership remains high, with Vanguard and T Rowe Price among the largest holders.

Technical signals suggest near-term choppiness, but longer-term sentiment remains positive.

Why It Matters: Dollar Tree is positioning itself as a defensive retail play with upside.

While sentiment is split in the short term, buybacks and steady sales growth could help support the stock in a volatile consumer environment.

Moderna | MRNA

Price: $24.09

Moderna shares are down 43% year-to-date as investors remain cautious about its pipeline and cash burn.

UBS reiterated a Buy rating with a 70 target, pointing to undervaluation given upcoming Phase 3 CMV data this fall and ongoing oncology trials.

Q2 results showed revenue of $142 million, above expectations, and an EPS loss of $2.13, which beat estimates.

Management reaffirmed a 6 billion cash balance for year-end and aims for breakeven by 2028 through cost cuts and disciplined R&D.

Why It Matters: Sentiment remains negative, but catalysts like late-stage trial data could shift the narrative.

For investors with a tolerance for volatility, current prices may not reflect the full potential of Moderna’s vaccine and oncology portfolio.

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Harley-Davidson | HOG

Price: $29.12

Harley-Davidson stock has fallen 1% this year as weak shipments weighed on results.

Q2 revenue dropped 19% year over year to $1.31 billion, but management secured $1.25 billion in new cash through the sale of minority stakes in its financing arm to KKR and PIMCO.

The company plans to reduce its debt by $450 million, return $500 million to shareholders, and reinvest $300 million in the core business.

While motorcycle demand remains soft, Harley benefits from a stable financing channel and a more flexible balance sheet.

Why It Matters: The stock trades around 15x earnings with a 2.5% dividend yield.

Restructuring the financing arm gives Harley room to navigate weak demand and provides investors a potential value entry point if consumer spending stabilizes.

Hormel Foods | HRL

Price: $25.44

Hormel has lost 19% year to date after cutting full-year guidance. Management now expects EPS of $1.33 to $1.35, down from prior guidance of $1.49 to $1.59.

While Q3 sales and income increased year over year, profitability remains pressured by rising input costs and weaker margins.

The dividend yield of 4.6% offers stability, and Hormel remains a Dividend King with decades of consecutive payouts.

Analysts see fair value closer to 33, suggesting 30% upside if margins recover. However, near-term sentiment is cautious as cost pressures persist.

Why It Matters: Hormel appeals to long-term dividend investors, but earnings headwinds may weigh on performance in the coming quarters.

Monitoring cost management and brand recovery efforts will be key to assessing value.

Autodesk | ADSK

Price: $314.70

Autodesk stock climbed 9% after its latest earnings report delivered a double beat on both revenue and EPS.

Sales rose 17% to $1.76 billion while adjusted EPS came in at 2.62, up 22% year over year.

Billings increased by 36%, indicating strong demand across architecture, engineering, and construction.

Management raised full-year guidance, forecasting revenue of nearly $7.05 billion and EPS between $9.80 and $9.98, which is well above the prior consensus.

Analysts have responded by raising price targets, with Baird increasing its target to $345. Technical strength has also been a driver as shares trade just shy of their 52-week high.

Why It Matters: Investors have rewarded Autodesk’s push into AI-enabled design tools and new subscription models.

While the 67x P/E ratio reflects high expectations, momentum, and strong billings growth suggest the company may have further room to run.

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This edition highlights a mix of growth momentum and defensive value.

A design software leader is setting the pace with accelerating billings, while retailers and consumer staples navigate choppy conditions.

Biotech and cyclical plays add both risk and opportunity.

Balancing exposure to growth catalysts with stable cash flow names may be the most effective way to approach early September markets.

Stat of the Day – $726.3 Billion

US retail and food sales rose 0.5% in July to reach $726.3 billion. While the result fell just shy of forecasts, June was revised higher to 0.9% growth.

Auto sales led the gains, with strong online shopping demand also helping. Analysts warn tariffs could dampen spending later in the year.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha