From Buffering to Breakout: The Streaming Stock Loading Fast

30‑Second Take

Why now? Bilibili appears to be on the cusp of a bullish breakout, with earnings estimates increasing almost by the day. The video sharing site’s earnings per share are projected to grow by +6900% in 2025, with the consensus analyst estimate leaping 78.95% within the last four weeks.   Barclays, HSBC, and Benchmark are just some of the analysts expecting much bigger things from BILI in the coming months. With technical indicators flashing breakout signals, now’s the time to consider making a move.

Trade Setup

Time frame: Swing to medium-term
Edge type: Momentum breakout

Snapshot Table

Chart

5-Day Synopsis: BILI stock prices have been on a red-hot streak over the last five days. This forward momentum has been consistent since hitting a low of $14.47 back in April but the pace has picked up in recent days. The stock price has gained an impressive 8.41%, with technical indicators suggesting the bullish momentum will continue.

Bull Case 

Core thesis: Bilibili is a leading Chinese video platform known for its strong Gen Z user base, engaging anime, gaming, and cultural content, and a community-driven model that sets it apart from mainstream rivals. As China's answer to YouTube and Twitch, Bilibili has an engaging blend of streaming, e-commerce, and social interaction which it serves up to an audience of 107 million daily active users. 

Catalysts: After a period of strategic cost-cutting and user monetization efforts, Bilibili is turning a corner—posting strong revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and achieving positive operating cash flow. According to its latest data, the streaming site had more than 32 million paying users in Q1 2025. 

The time users spend on the app is now at a record high of 108 minutes per day, providing ample opportunity for further monetization. With analyst upgrades and a rebound in China's digital ad market, BILI’s star is rising as a high-potential growth story in 2025.

Valuation upside: Price targets are changing quickly, but at time of writing, the current upside target is $36.01 with an average target of $25.21. The low is $18.07. 

Technical tailwind: Prices have broken above the 20-day and 50-day moving average, with all indicators suggesting the bullish momentum will continue.

Bear Case 

Key risk: BILI has been navigating some tricky financial waters but is making headway on rebalancing its balance sheet. With efforts in those areas now paying off, the key risk could come from the Chinese government. China continues to crack down on digital platforms, especially those targeting younger audiences.

As Bilibili’s core content—anime, gaming, user-generated video—is primarily aimed at a younger audience, it often comes up against tougher regulatory scrutiny. To stay compliant, BILI must invest heavily in moderation and censorship infrastructure, which can squeeze margins.

Macro/sector headwinds: Government policy isn’t always predictable and is often influenced by wider geopolitical events. Any sudden shifts, such as new limits on screen time, changes to gaming licenses, or ad restrictions could quickly derail BILI’s fast user growth and impact its ability to monetize its audience. 

Competitive threat: There are several larger, more diversified tech giants already doing well in China—particularly Tencent, ByteDance (Douyin/TikTok), and Kuaishou. ByteDance's Douyin and Tencent’s video arms both offer vast libraries of short and long-form video content with massive reach and ad budgets. They compete directly for user time and advertising dollars. Any innovation on their part could impact Bilibili’s own effectiveness and user appeal. 

Crowded-trade concern: If sentiment toward China cools again—due to geopolitical tensions, renewed regulation, or macro data—BILI could underperform as investors rotate out of crowded positions quickly.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (June 11, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha