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CoreWeave's Earnings Put This AI Landlord's $20 Billion Backlog to the Test
Its anchor tenant reports after the close on Tuesday. Here is what to watch in this AI data center stock.
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This AI data center developer has more than a gigawatt of capacity under signed leases, yet the stock sits roughly two-thirds below its 52-week high.
Its anchor tenant reports results after the close on Tuesday, November 10, and its next test is financing the rest of its buildout.
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Applied Digital Corp.
November 10 – Pre‑market
Ticker: APLD | Sector: Technology (AI Data Center Infrastructure) | Market Cap: $5.06B
30‑Second Take
Applied Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: APLD) builds and leases large AI data center campuses. Its Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota, is fully leased to CoreWeave and is contracted to deliver 400 MW of critical IT load, with 250 MW running as of October 2.
CoreWeave is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the close on Tuesday, November 10, with a 5 PM ET call. What CoreWeave says about power coming online, capacity demand, and its own financing is the nearest read-through for APLD's biggest tenant relationship.
The bigger question is money. CEO Wes Cummins said on November 2 that the company has financed about 600 MW of its roughly 1.4 GW plan and needs to line up financing for about 800 MW more over the next 12 months.
The stock trades roughly two-thirds below its 52-week high because the market doubts it can do so on good terms.
Trade Setup
Timeframe: Swing to medium-term (three to six months)
Edge type: Tenant read-through catalyst plus a financing test on a heavily sold AI infrastructure name
This is a bet that APLD's contracted leases are worth more than a roughly $4 billion market value implies, and that the next financing steps clear without heavy dilution. It is a high-risk setup, so treat it as a small position with clear checkpoints.
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Snapshot Table
Metric | Value | Current Stance |
|---|---|---|
Price | $16.72 | Roughly two-thirds below its 52-week high |
52‑week range | $13.12 to $50.70 | Near the bottom of the range |
Market Cap | $5.06B | Mid-cap AI data center developer |
P/E Ratio | N/A | GAAP net loss; adjusted EBITDA was $64.4M last quarter |
Avg Daily Volume | $27.68M | Heavier during the early November selloff |
Beta | 5.59 | Moves far more than the market in both directions |
Next Catalyst | CoreWeave Q3 results, Nov. 10 after close | APLD fiscal Q2 report typically early January; date not yet set |
Chart
1-Month Trading Summary: APLD is down about 35% over the past month, sliding from the low $20s into the mid-teens.
Selling picked up in early November after the CEO's financing comments, the Democratic midterm wins that raised data center permitting worries, and a broad tech selloff that pushed the Nasdaq into a correction.
The stock set a new 52-week low in that stretch before bouncing with the rest of the group, and volume ran well above its three-month average of about 21 million shares a day.
Bull Case
Why It Works
Applied Digital is not selling compute by the hour. It signs long-term leases with large tenants and builds the campuses to their spec.
The company says it has about 1,410 MW under signed leases across North Dakota, Louisiana, and Alabama, and about $20 billion of contracted revenue at its three newest campuses alone.
That backlog is already turning into revenue. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose 322% to $341.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA came in at $64.4 million as the Ellendale buildings came online.
The Catalysts
The first catalyst is CoreWeave's report after the close on November 10. Steady demand commentary and a clear plan for its own funding would ease the fear that APLD's anchor tenant is stretched.
The second is financing. Applied Digital has already done this once: it priced $2.15 billion of senior secured notes in March to build 200 MW at Polaris Forge 2 in Harwood, North Dakota. Each new project-level debt deal for the remaining capacity takes a piece of the overhang off the stock.
The third is more capacity. Polaris Forge 1 still has 150 MW of contracted load to deliver, and the company has agreed to form a joint venture with Soluna for a planned 50 MW site in Texas.
What The Numbers Say
Analysts expect revenue to climb from $611 million in fiscal 2026 to about $1.97 billion in fiscal 2028 as the new campuses come online.
Insiders have also been buyers: Form 4 filings show President Jason Zhang bought 300,000 shares on October 16 at a weighted average of $18.86, and Cummins bought 55,803 shares the same day at $18.04. The stock now trades below both purchase prices.
Bear Case
What Could Break It
Financing is the core risk. With about 800 MW still to fund and Treasury yields and credit spreads higher, each new deal could cost more, and an equity raise or convertible at these prices would dilute shareholders.
Tenant concentration is the second. CoreWeave is the only tenant at Polaris Forge 1, and its own stock has been cut roughly in half over the past year. A weak outlook or financing stress at CoreWeave would hit APLD directly.
Politics is the third. After the midterms, investors began pricing in tougher permitting and fewer incentives for data centers. Most of APLD's capacity sits outside Texas, but its planned Texas joint venture and any broader policy shift are worth watching.
The Valuation Risk
Applied Digital still posts GAAP losses, including a $221.0 million net loss attributable to common stockholders last quarter, so the stock has no earnings floor. With a beta near 5.5, it can keep falling well past what the fundamentals suggest when sentiment turns.
How To Size It
The next company-reported data point is the fiscal second-quarter report, which Applied Digital typically releases in early January.
Until then, you are trading CoreWeave's read-through and financing headlines. Start with a quarter-to-half position, add only after a financing deal clears on reasonable terms, and cut it if the 52-week low gives way.
Quick Checklist
✅ CoreWeave's November 10 commentary on capacity demand, power delivery, and funding
✅ New project financing announcements for Polaris Forge 3 and the Delta Forge campuses
✅ Any equity raise, convertible deal, or change in lease timelines
Deep‑Dive Links
That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha