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Chip Happens, So Buy the Dip and Make Margins Prove It

AI servers are inhaling high-bandwidth memory, and this one is serving plates fast. The setup works if gross margins stay firm and supply shows up on time.

Skip the chase. Buy weakness, use stops, and let guidance earn your adds.

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Kenvue | KVUE

Price: $15.30

The first U.K. group suit tied to legacy talc headlines hit and the stock slid to new lows while the dividend yield crept near 6%.

Core brands still throw off cash, but the legal overhang is real and timelines are slow. Management says the science is on their side, but the market wants proof.

Treat this stock as income plus optionality and size it modestly. Look for updated legal cadence, reserve clarity, and any portfolio moves that simplify the story.

Add only on red days when organic sales and margins are improving. Covered calls can help finance patience.

Why it matters to you: If litigation fades from front page to footnote and operations stabilize, multiple relief can stack on top of a fat yield.

Brown & Brown | BRO

Price: $87.91

New 52-week lows despite the brokerage model’s recurring cash flows and pricing tailwinds.

The big swing is integration after the ~$9.8B Accession deal and a segment reshuffle into Specialty Distribution. If synergies land without culture shock, the trough can hold.

You can accumulate gradually near the lows and let the math lead.

Watch organic growth and retention across retail and wholesale, margin expansion from the new mix, and leverage trends post-deal.

A drift lower in rates can dent float income, but brokers usually price through.

Why it matters to you: Steady fee dollars with light capital needs can compound nicely once integration risk is behind you.

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Snap-on | SNA

Price: $339.69

Q3 beat on the top and bottom line with net sales ~$1.19B up 3.8% and organic up ~3%. Gross margin was ~50.9%, down a touch, but operating leverage improved.

Tools Group grew ~1%, RS&I up ~10% on OEM and diagnostics strength, while Commercial & Industrial was roughly flat as Asia Pacific softened.

Financial Services was steady. Cash sits north of $1.5B and the dividend remains attractive.

This is a great time to lean in on weakness while RS&I momentum and enterprise penetration hold.

Require stable to rising consolidated operating margin, watch credit metrics in Financial Services, and keep an eye on undercar equipment volumes as a tell for shop health.

Add if international Tools improves and gross margin stabilizes.

Why it matters to you: This is a high-quality industrial with pricing power and a sticky pro customer base.

If diagnostics and information keep scaling, earnings can grind higher without heroics.

F5 | FFIV

Price: $300.47

Security wake-up here. A nation-state actor stole BIG-IP source code and information on unpatched vulnerabilities.

F5 says supply chain and build systems are intact and it has rolled fixes with third-party validation, but customers will need to patch fast and sales cycles could lengthen. Trust is the product here.

If you are long, it’s time to hedge and demand receipts.

Track patch adoption velocity, any surprise CVEs, and trends in renewals, churn, remaining performance obligations, and gross margin. New money should wait for the next update cadence.

If execution stays clean and customers stick, this becomes a high-moat buy on controversy.

Why it matters to you: Credibility is everything in security. Handle this well and the franchise exits stronger. Fumble it and valuation compresses.

Micron Technology | MU

Price: $202.38

Fresh highs on accelerating AI demand, sold-through HBM3E, and an outlook that points higher.

Fiscal 2025 was the turnaround, with Q4 strength and management guiding to about $12.5B revenue and roughly $3.70 EPS next quarter with gross margins expected above 50%.

That mix says AI servers are doing the heavy lifting.

In this area, you want to buy pullbacks toward rising support. Add only if HBM shipments hit the calendar and gross margin holds 50% or better.

Track capacity adds, inventory discipline, and customer mix tied to leading accelerators. Trim into vertical pops, re-add on base building.

Why it matters to you: This is the underlying gold rush play. You are not picking the winning model, you are supplying the memory that every model needs.

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Today’s basket mixes torque with test cases. MU is the torque in memory. Buy pullbacks and let HBM margins confirm before you size up.

KVUE is a rehab with yield, so keep it small and require legal and operating proof. BRO is a compounding broker at a sale price if integration hums. 

RF is a call-and-confirm setup where steady NII and clean credit can lift the multiple.

FFIV is a trust rebuild; watch the patches and customer behavior, then pounce if confidence holds.

Build on weakness, size to each name’s risk, and let operating metrics, not headlines, tell you when to add or trim.

Stat of the Day: $1.2 Trillion

S&P Global estimates 2025 tariff costs to companies at roughly $1.2 trillion, with about two-thirds passed through to consumers.

That combination squeezes margins and dents demand.

In practice, favor pricing power, low import intensity, and clean balance sheets that do not require expensive working capital.

Expect cost passers to outrun cost takers, and set alerts for when sticker shock shows up in comps.

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha