30‑Second Take

Why now? This week’s earnings call painted a picture of a travel business going places with strong market positioning and solid growth. The figures confirmed an impressive 100% year-on-year increase in inbound travel bookings, a 60% increase in overall travel bookings, and a 16% increase in net revenue. With growth across multiple sectors, an expanding international presence, and increased engagement with its trip-planning tools, Trip.com has an abundance of forward momentum.

Trade Setup

Time frame: Swing to medium-term
Edge type: Momentum breakout

Snapshot Table

Chart

The one-stop travel platform published its Q1 figures after the market closed on Monday, May 19. Revenue beat estimates by $1.15 million. Other factors, such as a strong cash position and 100% growth in inbound tourism in its native China, provided assurance that this is a platform gearing up for significant growth. 

On Tuesday, TD Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman reacted by revising his price target for TCOM upwards from $67 to $75. He also reiterated his 'buy' position for the stock, which was based not only on the firm's solid growth but also on its strong market position. 

Bank of America followed suit and modestly raised its price target on Wednesday from $68 to $70. Prices have slumped a little as the week has progressed, creating a potential entry point for investors looking for a window of opportunity. This could be attributed to profits not matching revenue growth; they fell just shy of expectations.

Bull Case 

Core thesis: A one-stop platform for travel, Trip.com offers cheap flights from more than 600 global airlines as well as train tickets, car hire, accommodation, and tour and attraction tickets. It also provides corporate and group travel solutions and has developed a series of AI-powered tools to help its clients across 39 countries plan the perfect getaway. 

Catalysts: This week’s earnings report showed a sustained growth trajectory spread across various divisions. Geographically, this stronger foothold is most noticeable across Asia, where favorable visa policies and a high-profile marketing campaign put Trip.com on course for further long-term revenue growth. 

Valuation upside: The consensus price target ranges from a low of $61.13 to a high of $96.13. 

Technical tailwind: TCOM stock is flashing mixed technical signals, with the daily buy/sell signal tipping towards sell. The stock is trading above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) but below the 50-day SMA. However, the RSI is approaching oversold territory, which could signal that a buying opportunity is imminent.

Bear Case 

Key risk: As a company that operates across many international borders, Trip.com is especially vulnerable to disruption caused by geopolitical tensions and exchange rate fluctuations. These disruptions are not just concerning not only from the perspective of increased costs and operational challenges. They may also influence customer travel plans and negatively impact sales.

Macro/sector headwinds: Early signs suggest that travel demand is weakening in some markets, including the USA. 

Competitive threat: Many other brands also use AI tools to improve their offerings. Expedia is especially notable in this field while other brands, such as Airbnb, could expand their offerings or step further into TCOM’s core markets as a result of legislation changes. 

Crowded-trade concern: Short-term bearish indicators could spark a sell-off, increasing downward pressure.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (Q1 earnings – May 19, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q1 2025 Earnings Report 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha