America’s Magnet Moment: Could This Be The Hidden Winner in the Rare Earth Revival?

30‑Second Take

The U.S. wants its rare earths back, and this highly speculative small-cap player is trying to make that happen.

With Washington turning up the heat on China and ramping funding for domestic supply chains, the spotlight’s shifting to companies mining and manufacturing the magnets that power EVs, wind turbines, and fighter jets. 

USA Rare Earth is aiming to build America’s first true mine-to-magnet supply chain, and that makes it one of the most politically charged momentum trades on the board right now, especially if the government opens its wallet wider.

If you pride yourself on being in on the ground floor of emerging industries, this is one elevator you won’t want to miss.

Trade Setup

Timeframe: Medium term

Edge Type: Speculative growth play with policy-driven momentum

Shares in rare earth products have been in high demand after headlines about U.S. strategic investments and new export curbs from China made waves, and USAR is one of the firms lined up to capitalize.

The setup here is highly speculative and isn’t about current earnings. It’s about narrative and timing in the face of a great buying opportunity.

With the stock still in its early re-rating phase and momentum building across the sector, jumping aboard this express train early gives you fast exposure to one of the most geopolitically leveraged stories in the market.

Snapshot Table

Chart

1-month trading summary: Shares of USA Rare Earth have rocketed 97.95% between mid-September and mid-October, turning a niche critical-minerals play into one of the market’s hottest momentum stories of the year to date.

The surge came as traders piled into anything tied to U.S.–China supply chain tensions and Washington’s push for domestic rare-earth independence.

Volume exploded through late September after news of government funding discussions hit the wires, and while the stock has cooled slightly since, it’s still holding most of its gains — a sign that buyers aren’t treating this as a quick flip.

Bull Case 

Building a rare earth supply chain from the ground up: The play here is simple: the U.S. government needs a domestic rare-earth supply chain, and USA Rare Earth is building one from the ground up.

Its Round Top project in Texas is rich in heavy rare earths, which are the same metals China keeps tightening its grip on.

With the upcoming Oklahoma magnet plant and the acquisition of Less Common Metals, USAR is stitching together the missing pieces of an end-to-end American magnet ecosystem. 

A perfect storm powering momentum: Momentum around USAR is building thanks to a perfect storm of political and industrial tailwinds.

The biggest near-term spark will be progress on its Oklahoma plant (set to go live Q1 2026), where “first production” could transform USAR from a concept play into a tangible domestic supplier. 

If you’re thinking of investing, watch for any new agreements with defense and automotive partners to convert into firm, revenue-generating contracts. 

The macro backdrop is also adding fuel to the fire.

Washington's growing appetite for critical mineral independence and any new restrictions from China on rare-earth exports could send capital rushing back into U.S.-based producers. 

Price targets: The spike in interest has caught analysts on the back foot with price targets still to be updated.

Currently, they're set at a low of $15.00 and a high of $22.00. 

Technicals are flashing buy: If you’re a momentum trader, this stock is flashing all the right signals.

It has blasted through key resistance levels and is now trading well above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — a strong confirmation of a sustained uptrend.

Bear Case 

Execution risk meets policy dependence: The biggest threat to this rally is execution risk wrapped in policy dependence.

USA Rare Earth is still in the pre-revenue phase, meaning the entire bull story depends on its ability to bring the Oklahoma magnet plant online and ramp up production without major delays or cost overruns.

Any slip in timelines, funding hiccup, or permitting snag could quickly deflate the hype.

A small, but fiercely competitive niche: USA Rare Earth operates in a small but fiercely strategic corner of the resource market, and its main rival is MP Materials (MP), which is currently the only large-scale U.S. producer of rare earths.

MP already has supply agreements with major EV makers like General Motors and is years ahead in production scale.

Bracing for policy whiplash: The most notable headwind by far is the prospect of policy whiplash.

By that, we mean if Washington shifts focus away from domestic minerals or if China trade tensions cool, the narrative fueling the stock could lose steam fast.

For a company trading almost entirely on promise, even a small wobble could trigger a sharp reality check.

A crowded geopolitical trade with risk: The "Made in America" rare-earth story has recently become one of the market's favourite geopolitical trades, and that popularity comes with risk.

With retail speculators, ESG funds, and even defense-sector investors all piling into the same small pool of stocks, sentiment can flip fast.

If the headlines quiet down or momentum cools, thin liquidity and sharp drawdowns could be left in their wake.

Quick Checklist 

✅ Thesis still valid after today’s close
✅ Volume confirms move above key levels
✅ Catalyst date double-checked (October 16, 2025)

Deep‑Dive Links

• Q2 2025 Earnings 

• Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

• Short Interest Data

• Company Profile and Investor Relations

That’s all for today’s Everyday Alpha. We’ll have a new pick for you every morning before the market opens, so stay tuned!

Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Everyday Alpha